Demographic development resources: on the unification of concepts in demographic research

The basis for implementing research activities is the conceptual and terminological apparatus of any science. At the same time, it is in it that confusion is often observed. As L.L. Rybakovskii points out, even the interpretation of “concept” and “term” has different variants1. Turning to the scientific research methodology theory, let us focus on the logical sequence: phenomenon – concept – definition – term. First of all, we are talking about the essence, which is invisibly present and mentioned by demographic researchers, but is not articulated clearly, which the article will demonstrate later. It is necessary to assign a concept to this phenomenon because it exists objectively, and without proper conceptualization it cannot become an object of scientific research. Once an objective phenomenon has been conceptualized as a concept, it should be defined and assigned a term to be used by researchers in a unified manner and to achieve proper scientific rigor. This article considers “demographic development resources” as an instrumental (applied, scientific) concept and term.

Demographic processes epitomize life itself in a broad sense. In a philosophical sense, demographic development is not only and not so much a goal of state management as a matter of preserving life itself. Undoubtedly, the purpose of existence of any state is to increase the population and their well-being. In the modern world, demographic development of a country is usually identified with its development as a whole, as demographic processes reflect the nature of the totality of socio-ecological-economic processes of the state. In Russian management practice, there is a clear idea of demographic processes as managed or, at least, directed by the state. Attempts to manage demographic processes in Russia in accordance with the established management practice are expressed in the formation of a set of relevant normative legal acts.

The National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation, approved by Presidential Decree 4002, dated July 2, 2021, named “saving the people of Russia and the human potential development”

as the priority national interest of the country (the first among the listed ones). Ensuring the country’s stable demographic development is the subject of implementation not only of the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation, but also of a number of strategic documents. Presidential Decree 642 “On the Strategy for Scientific and Technological Development of the Russian Federation”, dated December 1, 2016 lists “demographic transition due to the increase in life expectancy, changes in population’s lifestyle, and the associated aging of the population, which together leads to new social and medical problems”3 among the most significant challenges in terms of scientific and technological development of the Russian Federation. The Concept of Demographic Policy of the Russian Federation for the period until 20254, the Concept of State Family Policy in the Russian Federation for the period until 20255, the national project “Demography”6 and a number of other state initiatives emphasize the difficulty and complexity of the tasks to be solved in this area.

Research methodology

Our article is the first in a series of studies devoted to the definition and measurement of the demographic development resource, which, according to our vision, is the basis (source) of demographic development. Understanding, defining and measuring the resource of demo- graphic development will initiate the study of the possibilities of its management and building up, which, ultimately, should lead to a situation of demographic development management.

However, trying to form a definition of the demographic development resource in the literature review, we encountered a significant difficulty, which became our research problem; it was the disparate definitions for the same concepts on the topic of demographic management.

The aim of the research is to critically examine and summarize the disparate approaches to systematize and unify the terminological apparatus in the field of demographic management. In accordance with the aim, we carried out a literature review to present the diversity of application of the terms of this category as well as to synthesize the most specific and noncontradictory definitions on their basis.

The sample includes concepts we considered essential (fundamental) from the point of view of demographic management research, which in a sense appeal to the issue of determinants (resources, sources, means) of demographic development, and therefore are synonymous and partially interchangeable.

As a basis for the review, we use all available literature sources, in which the concepts in question (demographic development, demographic policy, their tools, demographic resilience, demographic potential, demographic resource and demographic development sources) are mentioned in the text or in the definition of determinants (resources, sources, means) of demographic development.

We formed the base for the review proceeding from the aim of the study, but not due to our preferences. As a result, it is represented mainly by the works of the most famous researchers-demographers of modern Russia, since the subject under consideration is highly specialized and is rarely found in the works of non-specialists. In addition, the article presents a comparative analysis of the definitions of the concepts “resource”, “source” and “potential” from all modern dictionaries to which the authors had access and which contained definitions for these concepts.

The study included a search for the necessary definitions and interpretations of concepts relevant to the research topic, which led to the analysis of many sources that were not included in the research results as they did not meet the criteria we have set.

Demographic policy and its resources

The documents listed in the introduction together constitute the content of the state demographic policy. As any other public policy, it is a mechanism for achieving the set goals necessary for the development of the state and society. In this case, we are talking about the achievement of state goals in the field of demography as a branch of knowledge or population as an object of policy. The classical definition of “demographic policy” states that it is “a system of ideas and conceptually united means, generally accepted at the level of power structures, with the help of which, first of all, the state, as well as other public institutions, observing certain principles, assume the achievement of the set goals in the demographic development of the country (region)” (Demography for practical..., 2014).

The above definition emphasizes the components of demographic policy: “ideas” and “sources”. Unfortunately, in the subsequent studies of the authors of the monograph the proposed components are not disclosed. It is obvious that to form a quality demographic policy it is necessary to realize not only its essence, but also the content of its individual components. The literature review showed that there is no answer to the question of what are the “sources” of demographic policy. In our opinion, instead of “conceptually united sources” we can also use a more succinct definition of “resource”, which will be explained in detail later in the article and which is in many ways close to the definition of “sources”.

The work “Practical Demography” edited by L.L. Rybakovskii states: “The set of measures of demographic policy is formed in three directions: increasing the birth rate and strengthening the institution of the family; improving health and increasing life expectancy; providing the necessary migration growth and improving the attraction and use of labor migrants” (Practical Demography..., 2005). It follows from the text that, according to the authors of the monograph, demographic development resources are also subdivided by directions. The first direction includes money allowances, maternity leave, tax benefits, loans for the purchase and subsidization of rental housing, and other measures (including draft deferment); resources for the second direction include measures to regulate alcohol consumption, reduce poverty, and improve the healthcare system; for the third direction, only normative legal acts regulating the quality and intensity of interstate migration flows.

O.L. Rybakovskii and O.A. Tayunova note: “The goals and systems of demographic policy measures are determined by the prevailing ideological concepts, features of the established social system, type of public administration, level of economic development and resource capabilities, quality of life, cultural and religious norms and traditions, stage of demographic transition, prehistory of trends, measures, as well as cataclysms in the territory under consideration” (Rybakovskii, Tayunova, 2019a). In this case, we draw attention to the phrase “resource capabilities” of demographic policy, which are also not further disclosed in the text. In the paper, the authors distinguish the components of demographic policy: population reproduction policy, migration policy, as well as elements of ideology, propaganda and legal administration. Accordingly, various studies in one way or another point to the need for “resources” or “sources” of demographic policy, but it is not defined what meaning is put into these definitions.

In the English-language literature, the phrase “demographic policy” is used less frequently, and more often “population policy” is used. Let us consider a few classic English-language definitions. According to Edwin Driver’s definition, population policy is defined as a measure formulated by a number of social institutions, including government, that can influence the size, distribution, or composition of the human population (Driver, 1972). According to another definition, it is a deliberate attempt by a national government to influence demographic variables such as fertility, mortality, and migration (Organski, Organski, 1961). As defined by French demographer Jean Bourgeois-Pichat, population policy is a set of agreed laws aimed at achieving a specific demographic goal (Bourgeois-Pichat, 1973). Thus, in English-speaking practice, demographic policy is a tool for achieving the set management goals with the emphasized role of the actor (national government, etc.). The demographic policy resources are normative legal acts and management actions according to these definitions.

In our understanding, the goal of demographic policy in the broad sense is always the achievement of “demographic stability”. By demographic stability we mean “the formation of such qualitative and quantitative characteristics of matrimonial, reproductive, self-preservation and migration parameters that lead to a steady state and development of demographic processes that ensure natural reproduction of the population at a level that meets the national interests of the country” (Rostovskaya, Zolotareva, 2022). The key demographic policy component at the national level is the availability of the resource base, which includes various demographic development resources.

Demographic stability is a priority of state policy, since population growth or at least preservation is a guarantee of the national security, preservation of territorial integrity and sovereignty, as well as increasing the statehood in the international arena. In economic terms, population growth for a developing economy is a resource for intensifying economic growth. Achieving demographic stability is a response to existing demographic threats, such as depopulation, population aging, demographic expansion and others. However, at the moment there are no clearly identified mechanisms for achieving demographic stability in Russia, as well as in the vast majority of developed countries.

Demographic development

In 2001, the Government of the Russian Federation approved the “Concept of Demographic Development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2015” 7; and in 2007, the Presidential Decree approved the “Concept of Demographic Policy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025”8. Thus, although the new document did not exclude the validity of its predecessor, in the normative legal vocabulary the concept of “demographic development” was replaced by “demographic policy”, which is identical in many respects, since demographic development is always the goal of demographic policy.

There are other interpretations of such a change of concepts. For instance, L.L. Rybakovskii and N.I. Kozhevnikova point out that “development” refers to the concept of “strategy”, and “policy” – to the definition of “concept”, despite the fact that both of the above documents are called concepts. “Development is understood as either an increase in the complexity of objects, or an increase in their scale, or both at the same time”. The goal of demographic development (using the example of the USSR), according to the authors, is “to ensure sustainable upward demographic dynamics and to realize a steady increase in the share of Siberia and the Far East in the population of the country” (Rybakovskii, Kozhevnikova, 2020).

In another paper, L.L. Rybakovskii and G.R. Khasaev provide a detailed definition of the concept of “development”, including the use of dictionary interpretations, distinguishing between the definitions of “demographic development” and “demographic policy”, “demographic dynamics” and “demographic statistics” (Rybakovskii, Khasaev, 2015). The authors propose their own interpretation of demographic development, which “consists in ensuring, primarily due to the reproductive component, the upward population dynamics necessary for a sustainable increase in the level of the country’s population, especially in its Asian part, the growth of labor, educational and military contingents that ensure a steady increase in the socio-economic and defense power of the state”. An important detail in understanding “development” and “dynamics” is the definition of the direction of movement, which is understood differently by various researchers. We are in solidarity with the authors of the abovementioned source, which says: “Dynamics can be characterized as ascending, when the scales of a phenomenon increase, or as descending, when they decrease, as well as static. Unlike dynamics, development has only a unidirectional vector, it is aimed in the direction of increasing the scale of the phenomenon” (Rybakovskii, Khasaev, 2015).

One of the most relevant works in the field of demographic development was published by S.V. Ryazantsev and L.L. Rybakovskii in the “Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences” (Ryazantsev, Rybakovskii, 2021). The authors do not provide a definition of “demographic development”, but it follows from the text of the publication that it is understood as the totality of ongoing demographic processes and trends in a certain territory and in a certain period of time. The authors of another monograph adhere to the same point of view: “Demographic development of Russia from the point of view of national security is a key area of public administration, which the President of the Russian Federation has defined as a priority” (Demographic Development..., 2022).

There are many other interpretations of demographic development. Let us cite some of them. For example, I.E. Kalabikhina writes that “demographic development is a process of evolutionary quantitative changes (population reproduction) and revolutionary qualitative changes (movement through the stages of demographic transitions)” (Kalabikhina, 2009). A.A. Kuklin, A.V. Cherepanova and V.A. Chereshnev understand effective socio-demographic development of the region as “such a development of socio-demographic system, in which the region ensures the optimality of population reproduction processes through the effective use of limited socio-economic resources” (Chereshnev et al., 2010). V.S. Steshenko believes that it is “the process of preserving the measure of population as an achieved result of historical progress” (Steshenko, 2013). The dissertation by Yu.A. Prokhorova under the guidance of V.A. Iontsev contains the following author’s definition: “Demographic development is both positive and negative changes in the quantitative (numerical and sex-age composition of the population, the ratio of births and deaths and a number of other indicators) and qualitative (the degree of spread of bad habits, the level of socialization, attitude toward education and cultural values) characteristics of the population of a country”9. Summarizing the above, we note: although the concept of “demographic development” has many interpretations, they agree that “development” is a process of change, movement, relating to changes in population size.

We do not find the concept of “demographic development” in English-language sources. The few sources that do exist, upon closer examination, turn out to be English-language publications of Russianspeaking authors (see, for example, Ryazantsev, Rybakovskii, 2021; Manshin, Moiseeva, 2022). Based on these Russian-language definitions, we conclude that the closest English-language terms to “demographic development” are “population change” or “population growth”. “Population change” is the difference in population size between two points in time (Baker et al., 2017). According to another definition, “population growth” refers to how the population changes over time (Snider, Brimlow, 2013), i.e. the same as in the previous case. An even closer term is “population growth models”, which is also identified with “demographic development” as it implies specification of determinants and actors of population growth (Barupal et al., 2019).

If we return to the definition of the demographic development by L.L. Rybakovskii and G.R. Khasaev (Rybakovskii, Khasaev, 2015), it is closest in meaning to the English-language definition of “population growth”. The key difference lies in the role of the demographer. The Russian definition traces the subjectivity of the researcher, assumes the influence and management of demographic processes. In the English-language practice, we observe a certain detachment of the researcher, who states but does not manage demographic development (population growth). In addition, demographic development in Russian practice implies the study of not only quantitative but also qualitative changes in the population. We do not find this in the English-language practice.

Thus, we consider the demographic development as the process of population growth, normalization of its sex and age composition, reduction of territorial disproportions in the settlement of population, strengthening the institution of family and traditional family spiritual and moral values, compliance of demographic dynamics with the goals and objectives of the development of the state and society. To avoid further misinterpretations, we suggest that the scientific community use the term “demographic degradation” as a designation of the reverse situation, which has not yet been properly scientifically conceptualized, but is often found in research publications (see, for example, Bakanov, 2017).

Tools of demographic development and population policy

Since the goal of Russia’s demographic policy in the broad sense is always demographic development, the article examines the resources, sources, tools and mechanisms of both demographic policy and demographic development. In the sources on the subject of “resources” of demographic development, including those mentioned earlier in the article, there is obviously some terminological rigidity. Some authors understand “tools” of demographic policy as “sources” and vice versa. Let us dwell on the tools in more detail to distinguish these concepts.

An exhaustive definition of tools in the context of public policy is given by O.N. Basov: “This is a sustainable deliberate action or a sequence of actions (tactics, strategies) of an actor directed at the external environment (whether it is a system or other actors) to change it in the way planned by this actor” (Basov, 2020). Based on this definition, as well as on what was stated earlier in the article, we conclude that demographic policy (development) achieves its goal (demographic stability) by applying the tools of demographic policy to the resources (means) of demographic policy. The application of tools to means is the mechanism of demographic policy implementation (the mechanism of demographic development). Thus, the concept of “tools” and “sources” (resources) are largely synonymous, but a closer look reveals that tools use sources (resources).

The article by I.I. Matvienko (Matvienko, 2021) analyzes demographic policy tools in detail. The author identifies three main directions: tools to stimulate fertility; tools to stimulate the health of citizens, aimed at improving health and reducing mortality; tools to balance migration processes. The approach is similar to that described earlier in the article edited by L.L. Rybakovsii, in which the above was referred to not as “tools” but as a “set of measures”. I.I. Matvienko further identifies five groups of demographic policy tools: 1) financial and economic, 2) organizational, 3) economic, 4) informational and motivational, 5) normative and legal. In our opinion, the author calls “groups of tools”, which can also be conceptualized as “groups of demographic policy resources”, which once again confirms the complexity of correlation and dialectic nature of the definitions in question. For example, a financial and economic tool can be a maternity allowance, and the financial and economic tool can be the federal budget funds allocated for the payment of this allowance.

The RANEPA team does not define the tools in the work on demographic policy and its tools (Khasanova et al., 2019), but it follows from the content of the publication that they are understood as measures of state support for certain categories of citizens (to improve the birth rate), improvement of the healthcare system (to reduce mortality) and tools to attract labor migrants. Once again, the continuity of L.L. Rybakovskii’s theoretical and methodological approach can be traced. We should also note that in the paper the resource is interpreted quite broadly, which is understood not as a source of achieving the goals of demographic policy, but as its result: “quality human resource”, “labor migration as a resource”, “health care resources”, “labor resources”. Thus, the dialectic of demographic development resources is traced, which can be both a demographic policy resource and its result, i.e. a resource of the state in achieving the goals of its existence and development.

In the national demographic report “Demographic Well-Being of Russian Regions” edited by Doctor of Sciences (Sociology) T.K. Rostovskaya and Doctor of Sciences (Economics) A.A. Shabu-nova (Demographic Well-Being..., 2022), the first section is devoted to the tools for regulating demographic development. The work also does not define demographic development tools, but it follows from the content of the section that the authors interpret this concept quite broadly and that these tools can be characterized as any activities and efforts aimed at the demographic development of the country, including the development of demography as a science, methods of collecting and analyzing demographic information, improving the training of personnel in the field of demography, etc. We should say here that what has been mentioned above rather refers to the tools of demographic policy implementation or to the resources of demographic development; however, as we have already demonstrated in the article, these definitions are very close and their distinction can be very debatable.

It is also necessary to point out the dialectics of understanding the tools of demographic policy, since demographic policy (or demographic development) itself is interpreted by many authors as a tool. For example, A.D. Gatin calls demographic policy as “a tool for forming the labor potential of the region” (Gatin, 2019). The article by N.P. Neklyudova expresses and substantiates the thesis that demographic projection (as an element of demographic policy) is an instrument of socioeconomic development of the region (Neklyudova, 2021). N.V. Mironova considers demographic policy as a tool to ensure Russia’s economic security (Mironova, 2019).

Demographic potential

Another related fundamental demographic concept is the concept of “demographic potential”. Earlier in the study, we have already given the definitions of potential. It was demonstrated that “potential” and “resource” are rather similar definitions, but potential implies a subject in relation to which it is measured, and also potential is possible means, not only available means. However, we cannot ignore the fact that there is a lot of research in the field of demographic potential, so it is necessary to understand this term in more detail.

It is believed that the concept of “demographic potential” was first introduced by the English demographer R. Fisher in the 1920s10. He considered the birth of a person as the receipt of life “on credit”, and the subsequent birth of one’s own children – as a “debt repayment”. The beginning of the study of life potential is associated with the work of L. Hersh, migration potential – with the works of J. Stewart, J. Zipf, S. Stauffer and W. Izard.

O.L. Rybakovskii and O.A. Tayunova note that demographic potential is an artificial, instrumental concept needed for management and forecasting purposes. Their author’s definition reads: “In the narrow sense, it is the potential of population reproduction, including only the potential of changes in fertility and mortality. In the broad sense, it is the potential of total population movement – the potential of population reproduction and migration potential” (Rybakovskii, Tayunova, 2019b). The paper also presents the evolution of the definition of “demographic potential” and lists the most famous authors and their interpretations, as well as related concepts: “human potential”, “life potential”, “migration potential” and others.

The publication notes that the authors of many works define demographic potential based on the research objectives, somehow narrowing the general concept to the specific framework of the object of study.

In the most relevant publication by O.L. Rybakovskii for 2023, devoted to an in-depth analysis of the term “demographic potential”, we find the following definitions: “Demographic potential is a generalizing term that includes resources and/or current and prospective opportunities and/or additional reserves for the development of demographic processes occurring in a particular territory, as well as (in the case of population migration) beyond its borders – in the regions related to migration. Demographic resources – the number and demographic structures of the territory’s population. Demographic opportunities – levels of intensity of demographic processes in the territory and their demographic consequences, such as changes in demographic structures. Demographic reserves are prospective possible deviations of the intensity levels of the territory’s demographic processes and their expected demographic consequences from the trends that are “prospective inertly” – under the influence of demographic policy measures, external and internal factors” (Rybakovskii, 2023).

A well-known Ural demographer A.I. Kuzmin in his work devoted to approaches to assessing the demographic potential of the territory, understands demographic potential as the latent opportunities inherent in the structure of the population by various demographic characteristics: “Demographic potential as a synthetic category is not just the number or mass of the population of a country or macroregion, but a certain system of assessment of the potentials of its viability, marriage, fertility, divorce, formation of sex-age and family-marital structure and territorial mobility of the population (including pendular migration)” (Kuzmin, 2016). In A.I. Kuzmin’s work, we analyzed the works devoted to the study of demographic potential, which helped to identify two methodological approaches: from the position of quantitative estimates and from the position of population quality potential. Among the researchers using quantitative assessments, nine groups of authors were identified, who adhere to the following concepts: population growth potential, descriptive demography, potential for optimization of family and marriage structure, population viability potential, population survivability potential, fertility potentials (total, marital and non-marital), hypothetical minimum natural fertility, population marriage potential, depopulation potential. Among researchers using qualitative ones there are six groups: the concept of demographic optimum, the concept of selfregulation of demographic processes (homeostasis), axiological approach, valeological approach (socio-pedagogical approach), gender approach, human capital (cultural capital).

The scientific literature presents many interpretations of the concept of “demographic potential”, in many respects contradicting each other, but it is possible to identify the continuity of some approaches. For example, the team of authors at N. Laverov Federal Center for Integrated Arctic Research analyzed approaches to the definition of demographic potential and came to the same conclusions as A.I. Kuzmin. The work does not define demographic potential, but states that “when assessing the demographic potential of the territory, it is proposed to consider the following characteristics: quantitative – population size, sex and age structure, natural and mechanical population movement, life expectancy, qualitative – population health, education, marriage and divorce rates, ethno-cultural and religious composition of the population, demographic paradigms” (Smirennikova et al., 2018). On the contrary, O.I. Evseenko in her dissertation understands demographic potential as “the number of the part of the population characterized by high average life expectancy and potential ability to reproduce (children)”11. The team of authors at UrFU identifies the terms “human capital” and “demographic potential” and gives the following definition: “a set of knowledge, skills and motivations of a person that have economic value” (Bedretdinova, Semenenko, 2012). In the study by the team of Sholom-Aleichem Priamursky State University, the demographic potential of the region is understood as “the relationship between the dynamics of the population of the territory, both as a whole and in its individual constituent sociodemographic groups, and the level of reproduction (replacement) of generations” (Lutsenko et al., 2017).

The English-language literature does not use the term “demographic potential”. The closest English-language term is “demographic dividend”. This term was introduced into scientific use by Andrew Mason; his definition states that demographic dividend is the potential for economic growth, which can arise as a result of changes in the age structure, mainly when the share of working-age population (from 15 to 64 years) is greater than the share of working-age population (14 years and younger, 65 years and older) (Mason, 1997). This terminology is actively used by UNFPA (United Nations Population Fund)12. In further studies of the economic effect of changes in the population structure, the “second demographic dividend” was singled out, which implies an increase in savings in the country’s economy (pension fund, etc.) associated with population aging and an increase in the share of social dependents (Acemoglu, 2013).

E. Mason and R. Lee concluded that the second demographic dividend has a greater impact on the economy than the first one (Mason, Lee, 2004). Consequently, the domestic term “demographic potential” is most consistent with the term “first demographic dividend” in the English-language literature. The main difference is that in the Russian-speaking scientific environment, the concept of “demographic potential” includes the whole range of expected demographic effects, mainly social and economic, while in the Englishspeaking literature it is the economic effect of changes in the population structure that is usually considered.

Thus, the concept of “demographic potential” has so many interpretations that modern research on this topic is mostly devoted to reviews of approaches and attempts to systematize different definitions. Despite the extensive list of literature sources, demographic potential still requires fundamental understanding and description.

Demographic resilience

In foreign literature we do not find such terms as “demographic development” or “demographic resources”. However, there is a similar concept of “demographic resilience”, which is also reflected in the works of Russian researchers. This concept is promoted by the UN within the framework of sustainable development methodology and as one of its components – “sustainable demographic development” or simply “demographic resilience”. The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) declared 2022–2032 the decade of demographic resilience. The initiative identifies key areas of medium-term relevance: demographic aging; rural revitalization; fertility support; gender equality and family policies; supporting the aspirations of young people; and financing social policies (Demographic Well-being..., 2022).

A UNFPA policy document articulates the following: “Demographic resilience is a goal that includes the ability to predict demographic shifts, understand their effects and develop evidencebased, rights-based policy interventions. It means moving away from narrow approaches focused on population size alone to integrated population and social policies that aim to ensure prosperity and well-being for all”13. It follows from the content of the program that demographic resilience is the goal of public population policy, the situation of population growth in countries facing depopulation. In this context, demographic resilience is not so much scientific and methodological in nature, but rather political and managerial.

The methodology of demographic resilience is found not only in program documents, in which it originated as a concept, but often in scientific publications. Here are some definitions of authors. In the publication by O.M. Roy, a similar in meaning, but more specific and scientifically formulated definition is presented: “Demographic resilience of the territory is a property of local places of settlement characterized by stable values of the dynamics of demographic indicators, reflecting the high adaptability of the population to the conditions of their residence” (Roy, 2018). According to N.N. Kiseleva, “demographic resilience is such a development of demographic processes and structures that allows territories to fulfill their internal and external functions most fully and effectively in specific spatial and temporal conditions” (Kiseleva, 2008).

Demographic resilience originated within the sustainable development concept, which is also referred to as sustainable socio-ecological-economic development. If we distinguish three components of sustainable development, then demographic resilience will be attributed to sustainable social development as its most important, but not the only component (Lazareva et al., 2017). Some studies indicate that demographic resilience indicators include not only quantitative but also qualitative characteristics of the population, such as levels of education, employment, crime, etc. (see, for example, Gaifullin, 2016). Other researchers shift the focus toward health system indicators, such as disability, mortality from external causes, morbidity from socially significant diagnoses, infant mortality, etc. (see, for example, Rudneva, Sokolov, 2023).

In the English-language literature, where the term “demographic resilience” originated, it is also used extensively in research. An article by a team representing six of the world’s leading universities in the field of demography provides the following definition: demographic resilience is the inherent ability of a population to resist and recover from shocks (Capdevila et al., 2020). Another international team notes that demographic resilience reflects the ability of a country (or region) to ensure the quantitative and qualitative reproduction of demographic structures under specific historical, socio-economic, legal and natural conditions (Nikolaiets et al., 2023). In addition, demographic resilience is seen as the ability to maintain a long-term trend of population growth (Colantoni et al., 2020).

Thus, despite the widespread use of the demographic resilience concept in scientific research, it does not have scientific rigor and uniform definition. Demographic resilience is a certain desired state of the socio-economic system, which is interpreted by different authors depending on the branch of knowledge, applied methods and the desired management result. Demographic resilience cannot be characterized as an established theoretical and methodological concept, as it originated and is used more as a socio-political term.

Review of interpretations of the definitions “resources”, “sources” and “potential” in encyclopedic editions and dictionaries

No.	Definition			Source
	resource	source	potential
1.	Sources available but accessed only when needed	1.    Actual conditions, opportunities. 2.    Individual spiritual or physical qualities necessary for something; abilities. 3.    Money, capital.	Funds, capabilities, sources, stocks that can be used to solve a task, achieve a certain goal; capabilities of an individual, society, state in a certain area	Modern Dictionary (1997). Moscow: Bol’shaya sovetskaya entsiklopediya. P. 6110.
2.	1.    A source to which one turns in a time of need. 2.    Reserve or source of funds	1.    Reception, method of action to achieve something. 2.    An object, device (or set of them) necessary for realizing any activity.	A set of sources, conditions necessary for conducting, maintaining, preserving something	Ushakov D.N. (2014). Large Explanatory Dictionary of the Russian Language. Modern Edition . Moscow: Dom Slavyanskii knigi.
3.	1.    Stocks, sources of something. 2.    A source to which one turns in a necessary case (book)	1.    Reception, method of action to achieve something. 2.    A tool (an object, a set of devices) for carrying out some activity.	The degree of power in some respect, the totality of some means, capabilities	Ozhegov S.I., Shvedova N.Yu. (2000). Explanatory Dictionary of the Russian Language. 4th Edition, Extracted . Moscow: Azbukovnik.

End of Table

No. Definition Source resource source potential 4. An opportunity that can be resorted to when necessary 1. A technique, method of action for accomplishing, achieving something. 2. The thing which serves a purpose, is necessary for the accomplishment, realization of something. Totality of all available opportunities, means in some field, sphere Efremova T.F. (2005). Modern Explanatory Dictionary of the Russian Language. Volume 2. Moscow: AST. 5. (From French – ressource – monetary means, values, reserves, capabilities, sources of funds, income (e.g., natural resources, economic resources). – Sources, opportunities, means, stocks that can be used to solve a task, achieve a certain goal, capabilities of an individual, society, state in a certain area Prokhorov A.M. (Ed.). Large Encyclopedic Dictionary. Moscow: Sovetskaya entsiklopediya; Saint Petersburg: Fond “Leningr. Galereya”. 6. Cash, valuables, inventories, opportunities, sources of funds, income 1.    A sum of money, credit, capital; instruments for carrying on an activity 2.    A way of acting to accomplish something A set of available means, capabilities in an area Azrilian A.N. (Ed.). (2002 Large Encyclopedic Dictionary. 5th Edition, Added and Extracted. Moscow: Institut novoi ekonomiki. 7. 1.    A means to turn to in a predicament, a way out, an opportunity 2.    Stocks on hand, funds available for use as required 1. A technique, method of action to achieve something 2. The thing which serves a purpose, is necessary for the achievement, realization of something The sum of all funds, stocks, sources that can be utilized when needed for a purpose Evgenievna A.P. (Ed.). (1999). Dictionary of the Russian Language: In 4 Volumes. 3th Edition. Moscow: Poligrafresursy. Evgenievna A.P. (Ed.). (1999). Dictionary of the Russian Language: In 4 Volumes. 4th Edition. Moscow: Poligrafresursy. 8. Totality of means and sources of their receipt, possible and available for use in solving certain and unforeseen tasks in the regime of ordinary, optimal and extreme conditions without regard to the time of use. Resources include stocks and reserves – – Vorob’eva Yu.L. (2001). Civil Protection. Glossary of Concepts and Terminology. Moscow: Flaist, Informatsionno-izdatel’skii tsentr “Geopolitika”. Available at: komchs/8.pdf (accessed: September 29, 2023). Source: own compilation.

Having defined and distinguished the definitions of “resource”, “demographic resource”, “demographic potential”, “demographic development”, as well as the largely synonymous concepts of “sources”, “tools” and “potential”, let us move directly to the demographic development resources.

“Resource”, “source” and “potential”: content and distinction of concepts

A more detailed consideration of these concepts is required to use certain definitions more correctly. The term “resource” itself is found in various encyclopedic publications, is included in the conceptual apparatus of many fields of knowledge and is interpreted in different ways, and is quite synonymous with the term “source”. In addition, both in demographic and other scientific literature the term “potential” is widely used. We are interested in the etymology and modern meaning of the definition of “resource”, as it is the one we propose to use more widely. The Table outlines generally accepted and specialized approaches to the interpretation of the definitions of “resources”, “sources” and “potential”.

Summarizing the above, we can conclude that a resource (in a broad sense) is something that can be used to achieve a certain goal, to meet certain needs. In addition, the interpretations trace that a resource is always a stock of any natural, economic, etc. objects, means. Accordingly, when we talk about resources, we mean what is already available, rather than what can be created or borrowed. In the broadest philosophical sense, a resource is any entity or phenomenon that possesses certain capabilities (material, energy or other) and at the same time is available for purposeful use by a person. In a narrower, state-administrative sense, a resource comprises the internal material and spiritual reserves of all parties and components of the state, the main sources for creating socio-economic benefit and ensuring development.

Close, but not identical in meaning is the definition of “source” because the interpretation of

“resource” in the vast majority of cases is carried out using the concept of “source”, from which we conclude that it is used as a synonym. Based on the study of the above interpretations, we can generalize that a “resource” is always a “source”, but one that is available (stock) and resorted to in case of necessity in achieving any goal. On this basis, we propose to use the definition of “resource” in relation to the demographic development, as they believe that contemporary Russia has the source for demographic development, and also because there is an objective need to achieve demographic stability (goal), which has not yet been achieved.

In addition, the term “potential”, based on the presented definitions, is almost identical to the term “resource”, but with a slight difference. Potential is a set of all means to achieve the goal, unlike a resource which represents what is only available, in stock. In addition, according to T.N. Batova and V.A. Krylova, the fundamental difference between the terms “resources” and “potential” is that resources exist independently of the subjects of activity, while potential is inseparable from them (Batova, Krylova, 2016). In other words, demographic potential cannot exist by itself, it should be tied to something: “demographic potential of Russia”, “demographic potential of fertility”, “demographic potential of young families”, etc. Thus, “demographic development resource” as opposed to “demographic development potential” is, on the one hand, a broader term, since it is not tied to the subject of management, and on the other hand, a narrower term, since it implies only available means.

We should also note that we deliberately do not provide interpretations of the definition of “resource” that are not relevant to the research topic. In addition to the above definitions, a resource is understood as a person’s vital energy (“an employee in a resource”, “come to the end of one’s resources”, etc.), mainly in studies in the field of leadership and psychology. In addition, a resource is often understood as a means of production (“material resources”, “money resources”, “production resources”, etc.), this interpretation is characteristic of economic dictionaries and sources related to business and industry. Also, a resource in ecology is understood as both the planet’s ability to absorb environmental damage (“Earth resources”) and sources of energy and other benefits (“renewable resources”, “water resources”, etc.). In English terminology and related IT terminology, a resource is a source of data (“electronic resource”, “Internet resource”, etc.).

Demographic development resource

Existing approaches to defining “demographic development resource”

The scientific community has no consensus on what should be understood by the term “demographic development resources”. For example, T.M. Smirnova and V.N. Krutko write about demographic development resources (Smirnova, Krutko, 2011), demonstrating the relationship between the economic share aimed at human-oriented goals and the improvement of the dynamics of demographic indicators. Thus, without providing a definition, the authors understand the resources for Russia’s demographic development as economic resources that could be directed to improve the state systems of healthcare and education.

In the article (Shorkin, 2011), A.D. Shorkin proposed an innovative theoretical and philosophical approach to the definition of demographic development resources. In his opinion, the demographic development resources should be understood much more broadly, studying the human being as a part of the noosphere (according to V.I. Vernadsky: “the state of the biosphere”, in which the transformative and cognitive activity led by the human mind is incorporated). The author believes that the demographic development resources include three components: material resources (organic and inorganic substances, their fields, as well as different types of energy), temporal resources (the amount of time spent on achieving the goal), symbolic resources (respect and trust, beauty and courage, honesty, affection, praise, love, etc.).

Another team of authors (Kalachikova et al., 2021) also does not provide a definition of demographic development resources, but obviously understands them as a set of demographic indicators that have an advanced development rate. In particular, the authors emphasize that the resource of demographic development in Belarus is the fact that the average life expectancy and healthy life expectancy in the republic is greater than in Russia. In addition, the authors include “improvement of public health, reduction of preventable mortality” in the demographic development resource.

In one of his works, S.V. Ryazantsev lists the demographic development resources, which, apparently, include measures of state regulation of demographic and migration processes, in particular, the creation of databases on families applying to the centers for social assistance to families and children; improving public health, increasing the duration of active and healthy life, reducing mortality, primarily from external causes; stimulating the mobility of labor resources, attracting migrants of the necessary categories, attracting educational institutions, attracting migrant workers of the necessary categories, attracting educational migrants (Ryazantsev, 2020).

The English-language literature usually considers the demographic resources as sources of population data (see, for example, Pomazkin, Filippov, 2022) due to differences in the interpretation of the word “resource” (in Russia – “electronic resource”, etc.), but there are exceptions. Maurice Gesthuizen et al. believe that the degree of children’s education is conditioned by the presence of three types of resources in their parents: socio-economic, cultural and socio-demographic. By the latter they mean the absence of sociodemographic deviations in the family: normal contact and sufficient interaction between parents and children; more than one child in the family, but not too many; complete family (two parents); timely birth (not too young age of the mother) (Gesthuizen et al., 2005).

Familiarization with the English-language literature on the topic of “demographic development” made it clear that the issue of resources or sources and components of demographic development is not considered. There is a fundamental difference between the Russian-speaking research community’s understanding of demographic processes as those that can be managed and those that can only be observed by the English-speaking research community. As a result, the question of the existence of demographic resources or demographic development resources is not raised.

Summarizing the few identified approaches to the definition of demographic development resources, we conclude that this concept is practically not found in the literature, it is mentioned in passing and in the context of research on nondemographic related areas. It is obvious that the authors who used this definition did not put a special meaning in it, did not reveal its content. We believe that this significant methodological omission should be filled.

Own approach to defining the definition of “demographic development resource”

We pursue a practice-oriented goal: to overcome terminological rigidity in highly specialized demographic definitions, to fill the terminological gap in the development of demographic management methodology in terms of defining and specifying the components of demographic development. Many researchers studying this issue assume the existence of some “resources” or “sources” of demographic development (policy), but do not disclose their content, which is demonstrated in this article. This leads to a situation in which different studies and different authors mean different content under the same terms. The literature review allows concluding that the very existence of “demographic development resources” is assumed by various authors, but their content remains unclear.

As we have already demonstrated in the table, “resources” and “sources” are synonymous concepts and are often used in interpreting each other. Both terms refer to some source, tangible or intangible, that can be used to create or develop something. The main difference between a resource and a source is that a resource is a means that is available, in stock and can be used when needed. Accordingly, a source is a slightly broader concept, as it includes both accumulated resources and potential sources and opportunities, i.e. everything that can be used to achieve a goal. In this article, we are talking about demographic development and, in particular, the development of Russia. We suggest that the scientific community should understand demographic development sources as a wider range of determinants of demographic development, including non-traditional, ethically controversial, futuristic, etc., i.e. all available resources, as well as virtual, theoretical, conceptual, etc.

Summarizing the list of the above definitions of the concepts of “resources”, “sources”, “demographic policy”, “demographic development”, “demographic development (policy) tools”, “demographic resource” and “demographic development resource”, it is worth noting that the categories under consideration are universal, multidimensional and interdisciplinary, which helps us to define a universal terminology and propose the following formulation of the concept of “demographic development resources” as an objective phenomenon: demographic development resources are a set of tangible and intangible resources available to demographic policy actors that can be used to manage demographic and migration processes to achieve demographic stability. Supplementing the universal concept to make it instrumental, we note that demographic development resources are a component of demographic policy and together with demographic policy instruments form the mechanism of demographic development. Demographic development resources are classified in accordance with the determinants of demographic behavior. This definition, in our opinion, rather accurately corresponds to our idea of demographic development resources in the context of demographic stability as a priority of demographic policy of the Russian Federation and can be used in the practice of formation of state demographic policy, in the formation of strategic planning documents.

Let us summarize all the above to substantiate our vision and definition of “demographic development resources”. First, we should say and emphasize that in modern demographic science researchers can adhere to one of two contradictory concepts. The first one consists in the belief that demographic processes are controlled processes. Adherents of this concept, albeit unconsciously, seek and identify the determinants of demographic behavior, as well as tools to influence these determinants to adjust the final demographic result. According to the second concept, demographic processes are the result of the totality of complex, sometimes incomprehensible determinants, so that demographic processes are not controllable. Adherents of this concept are convinced that a demographic researcher is not a manager, but rather a mathematical statistician who identifies mathematically correct patterns and draws conclusions and forecasts about the alternative demographic situation that is to come. At the same time, researchers rarely realize their adherence to the first or the second concept and indicate it in the text. The adherents of the first concept are, as a rule, traditionally thinking Russian demographic researchers based in the oldest and most authoritative Russian research institutions (the systems of RAS, Moscow State University, RANEPA, etc.). Adherents of the second one are researchers from foreign countries (WHO, World Bank, UN, etc.), as well as Western-oriented Russian research schools (Higher School of Economics, Skolkovo, etc.). We are adherents of the first concept, which in itself determines the possibility of the set research task – to determine the “demographic development resource”.

The proposed definition of demographic development resources, in our opinion, has a general scientific and universal character. Accordingly, it has no territorial reference and can be used in relation to any country. However, based on the above, we have to note that the proposed definition, as well as the whole research approach, is more relevant to the Russian and post-Soviet reality. For Russian research practice, this definition fits into the generally accepted approaches, complements them, and brings the necessary scientific rigor. When using it in relation to other countries, it is necessary to translate the whole understanding of demographic processes as manageable, to apply concepts and tools that are not accepted abroad, and only then it will make sense.

Second, and it follows from the first, the issue of determining the determinants of demographic behavior is closely related and interdependent with the issue of forming demographic policy. A natural consequence of determining the determinants and instruments of influence is their application, which, in its totality, is demographic policy. As we have showed in this article, when interpreting demographic policy, most authors use in their definition, among other components, “sources” or “resources” that should be available so as the policy could be implemented. Currently, research on population policy has focused mainly on its tools, as well as statistically significant results. Accordingly, the study and discovery of demographic development resources is an important component of population policy research.

The goal of demographic policy, according to the terminology established in the Russian demographic literature, is always demographic development. As we have demonstrated, as well as in much more detail by L.L. Rybakovskii, “demographic development” and “demographic policy” are so close definitions that in some cases they substitute each other as synonymous. We do not aim to identify the most correct or appropriate one, but to state the established practice of using these definitions. In this case, when speaking about “demographic development resources”, we assume that this definition will be synonymous or fully repeat the same for “demographic policy resources”. Demographic development is also understood differently by the authors: according to the concepts presented above, the adherents of the first one, as a rule, understand it as purposeful actions to bring the demographic situation to the desired one, while the adherents of the second one imply changes in the demographic situation over time. Of course, within the framework of this article we talk about demographic development as a goal of demographic policy, the process of positive changes in the demographic situation.

Third, it is also important to define its other component – the tools of demographic development to understand the demographic development resources as one of the components of demographic development (policy). Since this topic is poorly represented in the works of demographic researchers, the literature review shows that there is practically no distinction between “tools” and “resources”. In our opinion, the tools of demographic development are applied to the demographic development resources, which together represent the demographic development mechanism. Development tools are actions or a sequence of actions aimed at achieving the goal. “Resource” and “tool” can be difficult to distinguish. For example, is a normative legal act in the sphere of fertility stimulation a resource or a tool? In our opinion, it is a tool, and the money allocated for the implementation of measures to stimulate fertility is a resource. However, there can be a more complex example – people. Since the population of fertile age reproduces new population, it is a tool, but, as shown earlier in the article, the population itself, according to many authors, is a resource. In this case there is a dialectic of concepts.

Different authors interpret this definition in their own way. The interpretations are determined by the branch of knowledge, within the framework of which the research using this terminology is prepared. The most common groups of interpretations of demographic resource, which understand it as “human resource”, “labor resource” and “migrants”, are distinguished. In the first case, researchers mean the population itself as a resource for achieving certain socially important goals. The measure of demographic resource in this case is the total number of population. In the second case, since we are talking about achieving goals in the field of production or the economy as a whole, the demographic resource is understood as workers (working-age) for a particular object of study (enterprise, region, state). Demographic researchers and economists who adhere to the concept of irreversibility and unnecessary overcoming of the “second demographic transition”, under the demographic resource understand migrants or only migrant workers as a source of population, labor resources and even solutions to the problem of natural decline. In our opinion, all of the above refers to the concept of “demographic resource”, from the point of view of demographic science – these are its elements, from the point of view of achieving a certain goal defined by the researcher – it can be the population in any of its manifestations and sections.

Consequently, a demographic development resource is a resource for achieving a certain goal: in the broad sense – to achieve demographic development (demographic stability). A demographic resource is one of the types of resources in some classification of resources to achieve a certain goal defined by the researcher. The difference between the definitions is manifested in the fact that “demographic development resource” is specific and can be defined uniformly in accordance with the designated goal – demographic development. “Demographic resource”, in turn, can be interpreted in a multifaceted way, depending on the goals of the researcher, the branch of knowledge and the prevailing theoretical and methodological concepts. At first glance, “demographic resource” and “demographic development resource” are consonant, close definitions. However, a closer look shows that their content is different, they are not synonymous and cannot replace each other. If by demographic resources we understand the population in its various manifestations, then by demographic development resources we mean a set of tangible and intangible means of achieving demographic development, including the population, but not all of them and only as one of many components.

Conclusion

The article attempts to define and delimit the list of demographic terms related to the management of demographic processes. We present our definition of the concept of “demographic development resources” and give the corresponding substantiation. The answer to the question of what the demographic development resource is inevitably entails the following: what is included in the demographic development resource, what volume of the demographic development resource the Russian Federation has, how much it needs, whether it can be increased and whether it is necessary, how to use it competently and with the help of what tools, etc. These directions will form the basis for further research. The development of a methodology and specification of concepts for demographic policy components contribute to improving its quality and effectiveness. Concretization and institutionalization of the demographic policy mechanism predetermine the possibility of real management of demographic processes and overcoming demographic problems in contemporary Russia.