Demographic education in modern Russia: mismatch between the needs and opportunities

It is impossible to imagine the existence of any state without the population living on its territory. The current geopolitical and socio-economic situation, geographical features and environmental parameters, wars and revolutions, as well as cultural, religious conditions and circumstances – all this determines the demographic situation.

Knowing the patterns of changes in the number and structure of the population and understanding demographic situation parameters are essential conditions for strategic planning and ensuring national security.

In Russia, considerable attention is paid to the issues of preservation of the people at the level of federal legislation. Presidential Decree 606 “On measures to implement the demographic policy of the Russian Federation”, dated May 17, 2012, which defines the main priorities and directions of the country’s demographic policy for the medium term may be named as one of the main documents in this area in the history of the new Russia1. The decree outlines very ambitious targets, including “increasing the total fertility rate to 1.753 by 2018” and “raising life expectancy in the Russian Federation to 74 years by 2018”. Taking into account the demographic situation that had developed in Russia by the beginning of the 21st century, it was impossible to ensure the full achievement of the listed targets and to maintain the result.

The decree on Russia’s national development goals up to 2030 signed by the RF President on July 21, 2020 contains the national goal of “preserving the population; people’s health and well-being”. Its targets are very ambitious, for example: “... raising life expectancy to 78 years; bringing down poverty rate twofold compared to 2017; raising the proportion of citizens systematically engaged in physical culture and sports to 70%”2. One of the main goals in this document is designated as “ensuring sustainable population growth in the Russian Federation”, including natural and migration movement parameters.

Presidential Decree 400, dated July 2, 2021 “On the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation” contains the section “Preservation of the people of Russia and development of human potential”. The document refers to the state policy in the field of preservation of the people of Russia through “sustainable natural population growth and improvement of the quality of life”. Among the tasks that make it possible to achieve the goal, the following are presented: “increasing the birth rate, forming motivation for having many children; increasing life expectancy, reducing population mortality and the level of disability, prevention of occupational diseases”3.

In two strategic documents devoted to the development and preservation of Russia, adopted a year apart, close attention is paid to the issues of preservation of the people. At the same time, there is a certain discrepancy: the national development goals are about sustainable population growth, and the National Security Strategy is about sustainable natural population growth. It seems that the former is more likely to be achieved in the near future, while the latter, which involves increasing the birth rate and reducing mortality, requires a lot of effort and time.

Demographic development indicators as indicators of government performance are also included in many documents: Federal Law 172-FZ, dated June 28, 2014 “On strategic planning in the Russian Federation”4, the forecast of socioeconomic development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2036, prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia in 20185, the forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2022 and for the planning period of 2023 and 2024, prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia in 20216, Order 191n of the Ministry of Labor, dated March 31, 2021

“On approving a methodology for determining the demand of constituent entities of the Russian Federation, economic sectors and major employers for skilled personnel for the medium and long term”7.

National projects aimed at the preservation of the people deserve special attention. Since 2007, they have been the key instruments of demographic policy, defining its goals, resources and methods.

A brief overview of strategic documents at the national level allows us to draw three important conclusions: first, at the national level, the preservation of the population is recognized as the major national security factor; second, Russia pays due attention to the formation of legislative frameworks in the field of demographic policy, but the targets of strategic documents are not always coordinated. Third, when forming demographic policy and adopting strategic documents for development of the country, it is extremely important to take into account the specifics and patterns of demographic development, to know and understand the needs of territories in order to achieve a demographic optimum and form a favorable demographic situation (an increase in the birth rate, a decrease in mortality, attracting workforce, etc.). This knowledge makes it possible to build an adequate and viable strategy, include viable and relevant parameters in it and obtain results, including those aimed at preserving the people.

However, a natural question arises: where does our country train specialists who are able to build a competent demographic strategy, analyze current demographic parameters, understand the essence of the personnel needs of regional labor markets and the degree of differentiation of territories along the course of demographic processes, and who know how to build predictive models and are able to interpret them? Are there enough such specialists in Russia?

Our article is devoted to the problem of training demographers in a difficult demographic situation. The main purpose of the work is to assess the state of demographic education in Russia and the possibilities of its development. To achieve the goal, we will analyze educational and scientific activity in the world and Russia within the “Demography” field, assess the personnel potential, outline the stages of development and implementation of the educational standard in the “Demography” field initiated by the expected approval of the professional standard “Demographer”.