Determinants of birth rate in the northern regions of Russia: results of the all-Russian population censuses

Introduction. The study is of relevance as the birth rate remains low in most Northern regions, which makes it necessary to find its determinants in order to devise strategies of demographic development. This article aims at identification of the most important factors in the birth rate of the population in the Northern regions of Russia according to the results of the All-Russian Population Censuses and at justification of the topical directions of the demographic policy on the basis of the obtained results. Materials and Methods. The results of the 2002 and 2010 All-Russian Population Censuses and the data provided by the Federal State Statistics Service were used as materials for the study. The role of the factors of the marital and age structure, reproductive behavior was estimated using the V. A. Borisov technique. Correlation analysis was performed to find the relationship between the birth rate and a statistical indicator reflecting the state of a certain factor. Results. An increase in the degree of implementation of the hypothetical minimum of the natural birth rate in 2010 compared with 2002 has been detected, which indicates the impact of changes in the reproductive behavior of the population on the birth rate trends. It has been proved that the peculiarities of reproductive behavior of indigenous ethnic groups remain one of the main determinants of a higher birth rate in a number of the Northern regions. It has been proved that becoming more and more widespread, completed higher education ceases to play an important role as a birth rate factor, and the state of being married has an increasing impact on the average number of children born. Correlation analysis has shown that in regions with higher levels of female economic activity, the average number of children born is lower. Discussion and Conclusions. The results of the study may be used by the authorities when developing programs for family demographic policies; they may also be of inter est to scientists studying the issues of reproduction of the population. In the future, it is planned to find a connection between the birth rate and socio-economic indicators in the Northern regions of Russia using correlation and regression analysis.