Differentiation of income of the population of Russia: comparative characteristics and forecast

The objective of the study is to cluster the regions of the Russian Federation by the level of income differentiation and forecast trends in the degree of inequality in the distribution of income of the population of the Russian Federation. The methodological basis of the study is the cluster analysis method, which allows identifying territorial similarities and differences in the level of income differentiation. The forecast of the Gini coefficient values in the Russian Federation until 2025 is carried out on the basis of the exponential smoothing method. The information base of the study is data from the Federal State Statistics Service. Based on the results of clustering, three groups of regions with a similar level of income differentiation are identified. The maximum level of income inequality of the population is characteristic of the regions included in the first cluster, the average level of income inequality of the population is inherent in the subjects of the third cluster, the minimum level of social inequality of the population is characteristic of the regions of the second cluster. The results of the forecast indicate a decrease in the Gini coefficient to 0.381 by 2025.