Dynamical models of natural-technogenic risks

The general view of the risk assessment model in the natural and technogenic system based on the account of natural and technogenic factors influences on it is considered. A general solution of the differential equations system describing the model is found. Two examples of using the model for similar natural and technogenic influences are analyzed: linear impact that lead to catastrophic seismic events is considered, as well as parabolic impact that lead to creep, karst-deformation, subsidence, and landslide processes. Besides, two new dynamic models of the of natural and technogenic risk arising in the natural and technogenic system under the influence of dangerous natural and technogenic factors are described. The presented models differ from each other by types of influences: the first model considers parabolic (reflecting threats whose intensity gradually decreases with the distance from the epicenter) and linear types of influences (reflecting unexpected threats), the second model considers parabolic and hyperbolic (reflecting threats whose intensity decreases sharply over time) types of influences. It is concluded that it is possible to accurately describe almost any type of combined natural and technogenic influences and, based on the results of such a description, to create a special “atlas” of complex influences on the natural and technogenic system in order to prevent of various situations and develop the most effective counteraction from emergency departments and other structures.