Dynamic modeling of the production sphere of the enterprise taking into account the risk of the work capital structure

The work is devoted to the development and adaptation of economic and mathematical tools for models and methods of optimal management of cash flows generated in the production sphere of an industrial corporation operating under conditions of uncertainty and risk. A dynamic model is considered for choosing the optimal option for controlling endogenous parameters, which ensures a continuous growth of positive cash flow under the conditions of a) a constant rate of debt financing of production costs; b) a variable rate, nonlinearly dependent on the structure of productive capital, understood as the ratio of borrowed and own components in the volume of liabilities advanced to cover costs. In this paper, the model of cash flows in the production sphere is considered for an enterprise whose input-output function is correctly described by neoclassical dependence. The construction of a nonlinear relationship in the pair “structure of working capital - loan rate” is based on the use of an interpolation polynomial of a degree depending on the number of observations of the real values of the variables of this pair. As the controllable parameters of the model, the financial dependence coefficient and the share of funds from the profit directed to own investments in the production (in the article - working capital) of the enterprise are used. A series of empirical calculations of the economic dynamics of an enterprise for various options for uncontrolled market) and controlled (above) parameters of the model was carried out, and appropriate conclusions were drawn about their impact on this dynamics and, in general, on the efficiency of production activities of a corporation using borrowed sources of its financing.