Dynamics of Russian industry and transport in 1913-1920

The article analyzes the existing estimates of the dynamics of Russian industry during the war and revolution. According to most researchers, the volume of industrial production increased in 1914-1916, its decline began only in 1917. However, according to calculations by L. B. Kafengaus in his fundamental monograph «The Evolution of Industrial Production in Russia», the level of the industry continuously dropped in the years of war and revolution. Verification of Kafengaus’s calculations found in them a lot of inaccuracies and contradictions. In particular, the recalculation of the aggregate volume index of industry gives results to substantially differ from Kafengaus’s data. This can be explained by misprints, arithmetic errors, and by the correction factors, used by the author by default, with no explanation. Basing on his calculations, the author finds that the classical point of view adequately reflects the pace of industrial development in the years of war and revolution: before 1917 industry had been satisfactorily adapted to wartime conditions and had significantly increased. High rates of development of railway transport are an indirect confirmation of the conclusion. A full-scale economic crisis, which has also affected industry and transport, began only after the overthrow of the monarchy. The crisis dramatically intensified after the October coup and by 1920 had reached its climax. According to the author, the successful adaptation of industry to wartime conditions should be considered as a result of its successful development in the prewar period.