Econometric modeling of business processes based on time series data

Changes in the world economy, acceleration of globalization and integration processes, increased international competition, continuous and significant qualitative changes in technologies, structural changes in sales markets and consumer requirements determine each economic subsystem. This requires the company to create a competitive product, drastically reduce costs in the production process, and make optimal decisions in management, taking into account market requirements.

A fundamental change in the activities of enterprises based on market requirements, the introduction and modernization of modern and promising forms of management, the effective use of modern information systems and technologies are the main requirements of today and the main condition for the survival of an enterprise in conditions of fierce market competition.

"Modeling of business processes" is a science that studies aspects of modeling all processes in a logical sequence in the "life cycle" of the production of goods (services) in firms and enterprises operating in all sectors of the economy.

Market relations are a complex process characterized by elements of risk and uncertainty. Therefore, taking into account these factors, the correct organization of each production "chain" at enterprises and firms contributes to the achievement of the final results of the enterprise. In this regard, the importance of creating a scientifically based method of reorganization using mathematical and instrumental methods for modeling financial and economic activities in modern enterprises is increasing.

Econometric methods do not replace simple traditional methods, but contribute to their further development and analysis of indicators of objective outcome variables through other indicators. One of the advantages of econometric methods and electronic calculators in the management of the national economy is that they can be used to show the influence of factors on the modeling object, and the relationship of resources on the result indicator. This allows for scientific forecasting and management of production results and priorities of the national economy in dozens of industries and thousands of enterprises.

The importance of econometric models can be seen in the following:

• 1.    With econometric methods, material, labor and financial resources are rationally used.

• 2.    Econometric methods and models serve as the leading tool in the development of economic and natural sciences.

• 3.    It is possible to make adjustments in the overall implementation of forecasts made using econometric methods and models.

• 4.    With the help of econometric models, one can not only deeply analyze economic processes, but also reveal their new, unexplored patterns. They can also be used to predict the future development of the economy.

• 5.    Econometric methods and models, along with the automation of calculations, facilitate mental work, organize and manage the work of economic workers on a scientific basis.

This complex has one object of analysis, that is, the economy. Compared to other economic sciences, complex economics is analyzed by various econometric methods.