Есть ли в Норвегии голландская болезнь?

The Norwegian experience is considered to exhibit successful management of raw materials, specifically oil and gas. In this paper we analyze the economic situation especially oil sector. After reading this work, you can find information concerning the dependence of GDP and macroeconomic indicators, such as national income, exchange rate of national currency per US$, exports and import of fuel. All the analysis were made with the help of two-stage least square method in EViews program. Data was collected since 1994 till 2014 from World Bank.1 This is a practical example of mathematical and computer modeling based on the real data. This model contains mathematical representation of the system according to the formulation of problem, methods of constructing the model, computer implementation process modeling and analysis of results. As the result you would find that the model considered through this paper successfully passed tests and is suitable for the chosen country.

Dutch Disease. Did Norway escape the curse?

Economic model of Norway consist of investing large part of the revenue from the oil industry to the fund, the amount of which has reached $810 billion, rather than spending on public expenditure. Thus, the country cares about the welfare of future generations. Each year Norway uses only 4% of the fund's assets to budget spending.

Nevertheless, Norway has alarms, because both in the near future and in the long term. Despite all attempts by the authorities to isolate the economy from the oil sector, many economists believe that it is increasingly dependent on it. "We see that business cycles are synchronized with oil", - says Hilde Bornland Professor BI of Norwegian Business School.2

Perhaps it is not so bad, but there are long-term problems. One of them is the plight of the non-oil industries Norway. The economy consists of two parts, moving at different speeds, said Professor Bornland. With this agrees Kristin Skogen Lund: "Our economy is divided into two parts. There is a large concentration of investments in the oil sector, and failure in the other. "3

In this work there is analysis of the economic model which describes how GDP during the "Dutch disease" is affected by national income, exchange rate of national currency per US$, exports and import of fuel. There are 4 exogenous (independent) variables in the model: export and import, exchange rate, and oil rents; and 2 endogenous (dependent) variables – GDP and national income. The specification of the model is the following:4

|Y = C(l) + C(2) * XI + C(3) * X2 + C(4) * X3 (XI = C(5) + C(6) * Y + c(?) * X4 + c(e) * X5

Where Y – GDP, X1 – National income, X2 – Oil rents, X3 – Exchange rate (LCU per US$), X4 – Export, X5 – Imports. According to calculations we obtain the following result:

System: NORWAY

Estimation Method: Two-Stage Least Squares

Sample: 1994 2014

Included observations: 16

Total system (balanced) observations 32

Equation: Y=C(1)+C(2)*X1+ C(3)*X2+C(4)*X3

Instruments: X2 X3 X4 X5 C

Durbin-Watson stat

1.742053

As we it seen from the graph value of the multiple coefficient of determination R^2=0,99 shows that 99 % of total deviation of GDP is explained by the variation of national income, oil rents. Such a high value of the R^2 is quite good it is close to 1 (maximumR^2=1). This means that selected factors influence the given model significantly. F-test and DW test were passed successfully and this means that no autocorrelation detected.5