Evolving threats to national security

Автор: Ilyin V.A., Morev M.V.

Журнал: Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en

Рубрика: Editorial

Статья в выпуске: 3 т.16, 2023 года.

Бесплатный доступ

June 13, 2023, the President of the Russian Federation held a meeting with war correspondents, at which the following most pressing issues were discussed: the situation on the front line, the state of the Russian military-industrial complex, the effectiveness of personnel “elevators” of the public administration system and many others. The head of state’s public assessment of key aspects of the situation in the country was, among other things, “psychotherapeutic”, which was due to the increase in threats to national security, primarily military and even terrorist: the attack of drones on residential areas of Moscow on May 30, 2023, the beginning of counteroffensive on June 4 by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the explosion of the dam at the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant on the night of June 5 to 6, etc. In the course of communication with war correspondents, the President had more than once to admit mistakes and shortcomings in the system of public administration that have accumulated over the past 30 years, primarily due to the presence of a significant part of the elites who are guided by private rather than national interests. Today, work on correcting these mistakes is already underway in forced, extreme

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Special military operation, president of the russian federation, threats to national security, public administration system, society, elites

Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/147241189

IDR: 147241189 | DOI: 10.15838/esc.2023.3.87.1

Текст научной статьи Evolving threats to national security

The special military operation has been going on for 17 months1. During this period, Russia continued to face a concerted attempt by the Collective West to “tear the Russian economy to shreds”2, with necessary tactical retreats on the battlefield3, with organizational “muddle-headedness”4, which, apparently, had been accumulating for a long time, but spilled out and stirred up a significant part of society during the partial mobilization.

Today, the prospects for the development of the Russian economy are increasingly associated with the development of the domestic market and cooperation with other countries; as for the qualitative positive changes in the armed forces of the Russian Federation (in management, equipment, tactical training, etc.), even the Western media were forced to admit that they are emerging, as compared to the situation in September 2022.

Bloomberg: “Ideas about the weakness of the Russian army are either outdated or simply erroneous. Moscow has changed tactics and upgraded weapons, and the West could have missed this fact...”⁵

New York Times: “The Russian Army has brought discipline, coordination and air support to a new level... the command of the Russian Armed Forces learns from its mistakes”⁶.

And, perhaps, the main conclusion that Russia has drawn in the course of the SMO is a shift in the semantic accents that characterize the conflict that began on February 24, 2022: what was announced by the Supreme Commander-in-Chief on February 24, 2022 as a “special military operation... to protect people from the genocide of the Kiev regime” ⁷ , today, is increasingly supplemented with a new meaning – this is a “real war” against the West for the preservation of the Motherland.

“A real war is being waged against our country again but we have countered international terrorism and will defend the people of Donbass and safeguard our security. …

Their [Western globalist elites] goal – and there is nothing new about it – is to break apart and destroy our country, to make null and void the outcomes of World War II, to completely break down the system of global security and international law, to choke off any sovereign centers of development”⁸.

the entire period that has passed since the beginning of the SMO were summed up. The expediency of this event was largely due to the course of events in recent months, or rather, the increase in threats of a military and even terrorist nature.

Not only in the border territories, but also inside Russia, the “Kiev regime” with the coordination of NATO specialists carries out terrorist attacks against specific Russians – active public figures ¹² and heads of regional administrations ¹³ .

Threats to national security continue to grow. All the “red lines” have long been crossed; the Collective West is supplying the Kiev regime with tanks and long-range cruise missiles; many experts openly analyze tactical options for expanding the conflict zone to the territories of NATO countries ⁹ .

On June 13, 2023, the President held a meeting with war correspondents, at which the main results of

According to the FSB Director A. Bortnikov, in 2022 the activities of 68 clandestine terrorist cells were suppressed on the territory of Russia; 64 terrorist attacks were prevented ¹⁰.

Since February of the last [2022] year, 118 terrorist crimes have been prevented in Russia; their perpetrators were young people and teenagers; 28 sabotage and terrorist acts at transport facilities were prevented as well¹¹.

Many constituent entities of the Russian Federation (the Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk, Kaluga, Smolensk oblasts, etc.) are being attacked by Ukrainian drones manufactured by NATO. On May 30, 2023, residential quarters of Moscow were attacked by drones, which, according to several military experts, was aimed at “making the civilian population of Russia nervous”.

A. Matviychuk (military expert): “Of course, with this terrorist act, the Kiev regime is trying to create nervousness among the civilian population of Russia , to make our citizens afraid. Once again they created a media hype”¹⁴.

V. Shurygin (war publicist, member of the Izborsk Club): “The drone attack in Moscow can be called belated rather than unexpected . The following conclusions can be drawn: in Moscow and the Moscow Oblast, as well as in the regions closest to them, there is a sabotage network of Ukrainian intelligence ”¹⁵.

On June 4, 2023, the Kiev regime launched a long-planned counteroffensive. The Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation S. Shoigu noted that “the enemy did not achieve its goals and suffered significant and incomparable losses” ¹⁶ .

The terrorist activity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has intensified:

V On June 5, “in the area of the settlement of Masyutovka, Kharkov Oblast, a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group blowed up the Tolyatti– Odessa ammonia pipeline ” ¹⁷ ;

From the statement of the Minister of Defense S. Shoigu on June 6, 2023: “... having failed in its offensive actions , and in order to strengthen its potential, the enemy intends to transfer units and equipment from the Kherson direction to the area of its offensive actions, thereby significantly weakening its positions in the Kherson direction. In order to prevent the offensive actions of the Russian army on this sector of the front, the Kiev regime carried out a sabotage, in fact, a terrorist act, which led to the flooding of significant territories and will have severe and long-term environmental consequences”¹⁸.

“Given the unsuccessful start of the AFU counteroffensive, the Pentagon, NATO and the leadership of the Armed Forces, according to foreign and Russian military experts, at the second stage are preparing a massive use of long-range precision weapons, which should lead to the disorganization of the control system of troops and weapons of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, the defeat of aviation and antiaircraft groups, the defeat of land groups, the disruption of the logistics system and destruction of operational equipment elements in the theater of military operations ”¹⁹.

V On the night of June 5 to 6, a “large-scale sabotage planned in advance by the Kiev regime” was committed at the Kakhovskaya HPP.

Thus, with a relatively stable, controlled situation at the front ²⁰ , threats to Russia’s national security continue to grow. And this concerns the state of affairs not only on the front line, but also deep in the rear. Almost the whole country, any constituent entity of the Russian Federation, including the capital, is under threat of terrorist attacks today; thus, some experts come to the conclusion that the SMO has entered a new and “psychologically very important” stage ²¹ .

“Military actions certainly belong to the strongest factor contributing to changes in social conditions”22. Therefore, the tense situation developing both on the front line and inside the Russian Federation quite naturally increases the anxious moods in Russian society.

According to the results of sociological assessments, in 2022 the trend of growth in the proportion of people who show signs of anxiety continued: against the background of the COVID-19 pandemic, it has already increased by 7 percentage points (from 25% in 2019 to 32% in 2021); and in 2022, compared with 2021, by 3 percentage points (from 31 to 34%); moreover, it happened in the majority of socio-demographic groups (Tab. 1).

Table 1. Dynamics of the spread of anxiety symptoms* in various socio-demographic groups, % of respondents

Population group	2019 (year before the COVID-19 pandemic)	2021	2022	Dynamics (+ /-)
Population group	2019 (year before the COVID-19 pandemic)	2021	2022	2021 to 2019	2022 to 2021
Sex
Men	23.8	29.4	30.7	+6	+1
Women	26.0	33.7	37.4	+8	+4
Age
Under 30	17.1	21.4	20.0	+4	-1
30–55	21.0	28.6	28.0	+8	-1
Over 55	33.8	39.6	47.5	+6	+8
Education
Secondary and incomplete secondary	28.7	33.1	33.6	+4	+1
Secondary vocational	24.8	28.5	35.6	+4	+7
Higher and incomplete higher	21.8	34.5	33.9	+13	-1
Income group
Bottom 20%	27.5	41.6	37.0	+14	-5
Middle 60%	27.5	33.8	36.6	+6	+3
Top 20%	17.4	15.6	26.0	–2	+10
Territory
Vologda	18.0	35.1	39.8	+17	+5
Cherepovets	26.0	24.3	32.8	–2	+9
Districts	28.3	34.1	32.2	+6	-2
Oblast	25.0	31.7	34.4	+7	+3
Total number of positive /negative changes in all groups				2 / 12	5 / 9
* The proportion of people showing symptoms of anxiety was determined by the hospital scale of anxiety and depression. The methodology consists of seven questions that were included in the structure of the VolRC RAS questionnaire for monitoring public opinion. The survey was conducted once a year in the cities of Vologda, Cherepovets, in Babaevsky, Velikoustyugsky, Vozhegodsky, Gryazovetsky, Tarnogsky municipal okrugs and in Kirillovsky, Nikolsky and Sheksninsky municipal districts of the Vologda Oblast. The survey method is questionnaire at the place of residence of respondents. The sample size is 1,500 people aged 18 years and older. The sample is targeted, quota-based. The representativeness of the sample is ensured by observing the proportions between urban and rural populations, the proportions between residents of settlements of various types (rural settlements, small and medium-sized cities), the gender and age structure of the adult population of the oblast. Sampling error does not exceed 3%.

20 On June 20, 2023, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu noted: “Since June 4, the AFU has launched 263 attacks on the positions of Russian troops. Thanks to the competent and selfless actions of our units, all of them were repulsed, the enemy did not achieve its goals” (Source: Official website of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. Available at: .

21 A. Dugin’s Telegram channel. Available at: https://t.me/Agdchan/10405; https://t.me/Agdchan/10406

²² Zvonovsky V.B., Khodykin A.V. (2023). Adaptation strategies of opponents and supporters of the special military operation to the current situation (based on residents of Samara Region). Sotsiologicheskiy Zhurnal=Sociological Journal , 29(1), p. 9.

The meeting of the President with war correspondents (which was broadcast live on federal TV channels) largely answered the most important questions that concern the entire Russian society today. War correspondents (as noted by E. Poddubny, one of the participants of the conversation) “managed to voice, perhaps, all the issues that concern the inhabitants of our country: both military personnel and civilians ... Almost all topics are issues of life and death ” ²³ .

friendly and unfriendly countries, but also many problems of civilian life: the work of the militaryindustrial complex (MIC), assistance to servicemen and their families, organizational aspects of mobilization, the effectiveness of personnel “elevators” of the bureaucratic system and many others ²⁷ (the key theses of the head of state, voiced at the meeting with war correspondents, are presented in Table 2 ; the most important questions of war correspondents and the answers of the Supreme Commander are reflected in Insert 1 ).

“Today war correspondents are at the cutting edge; they see the whole reality and do not hide it, whatever it may be” ²⁴.

“It is important for him [the President] to understand the feeling, it is important for him to catch the nerve that exists among the people” ²⁵.

“This is an important aspect for the President to receive information from the field... The President himself highly appreciates this dialogue with war correspondents and will continue it”²⁶.

The topics discussed at the meeting concerned not only the goals of the SMO, the situation on the front line and Russia’s geopolitical relations with

“The meeting of the president with war correspondents really attracted attention with its most confidential nature. And the questions that were asked were as open and direct as possible; and Vladimir Putin’s answers were meaningful, without any secondary subtext and pitfalls… The President discussed not only the positive aspects and prerequisites for the successful outcome of the special operation, but also the difficulties that our army is currently facing ”²⁸.

Table 2. Vladimir Putin’s key theses voiced at the meeting with war correspondents

1. On the goals of the SMO: “our goals are fundamental for us. … by and large, our principles and thus, our goals have not changed since the beginning of the operation”.
2. On the situation on the front line: “This is a large-scale counteroffensive, which uses, as I recently said publicly, reserves that had been stockpiled to this end. It started on June 4… The enemy was not successful in any sector. …[Further developments] will depend on the potential that is left at the end of this so-called counter-offensive. … We will wait and see what the situation is like and take further steps based on this understanding. Our plans may vary depending on the situation when we deem it necessary to move…”
3. On the introduction of martial law in Russia, including for the purpose of fighting with saboteurs on Russian territory: “I don’t think we need to do that now. We just need to improve and expand the work of law enforcement agencies and special services”.
4. On the new “wave” of partial mobilization: “Depending on what goals we set for ourselves, we have to solve the issues of mobilization, but there is no such need today... we have recruited over 150,000 of them (under contract) and, together with volunteers, this number adds up to 156,000.... Things that are happening took even me by surprise: after all, 156,000 people volunteered”.
5. On the state of the Russian military-industrial complex: “Of course, during the special military operation it has become clear, that we do not have enough of many things … a lot of the groundwork has been done. Now the task is to build it up. If we did not have this special military operation we probably would not have understood how to upgrade our defence industry to make our army the best in the world”.
6. On the personnel promotion of people who proved themselves during the SMO: ЭOf course, we need to look for such people. There are a lot of them... both the Minister [of Defense] and the Chief of the General Staff fully share my position… We need to look for such people – with their consciousness and with their understanding of justice”.
7. On the role of private business in achieving the goals of the SMO: “We have dozens, hundreds of private enterprises that have never had anything to do with the military-industrial complex that have joined in this work: small and medium-sized enterprises...”
8. On the cases of anti-Russian propaganda in the activities of civil servants, university professors, etc.: “Leaving it like this verges on betrayal…”

Source: Vladimir Putin’s meeting with war correspondents. Available at: president/transcripts/71391

Insert 1

29 Source: Vladimir Putin’s meeting with war correspondents. Available at:

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As can be seen from the answers of the President shown in Insert 1, the meeting with war correspondents was transparent, and many problems existing both in the armed forces of the Russian Federation and in the civil life of the country were voiced during the meeting.

The President had more than once admit mistakes and shortcomings in various fields (in the space industry, in the work of the military-industrial complex, in the functioning of the bureaucratic system, etc.). Moreover, the Supreme Commanderin-Chief pointed out that it was “during the special military operation that it became clear that many things were missing” .

The head of state had to use the following expressions 19 times: “There is a problem”, “we need to work more carefully on some issues”, “I agree, we should have prepared better”, “yes, of course. It is necessary to adjust this work accordingly”, “I am aware of this problem – I have already spoken about it many times at different levels... We will try to do it”, etc. The head of state even made such statements as “ this is the first time I hear about it” and “this is unexpected for me ” ³⁰ twice.

We should note that the ability to admit mistakes, especially in such a difficult period for the country, on the one hand, suggests that “Russia has a strong, active, capable, strong-willed leader” ³¹ , but, at the same time, it indicates that over the past

20 years, significant shortcomings have accumulated in the management system that were not eliminated in a timely manner, and therefore today they have to be corrected in the face of real growing threats to national security. This concerns, for example, the absence of any tangible positive dynamics in reducing social inequality, the actual sabotage of presidential decrees on the implementation of national projects, corruption flourishing at all levels of government and many other problems that have long been discussed in the expert community, in the mass media, on social media, etc. ³² All of them have a long-term, accumulating nature, because for the last 30 years the system of public administration has been largely saturated with representatives of elites who are guided by personal, primarily financial, interests, rather than by the national interests of the country.

This, in particular, is evidenced by the fact that dozens and maybe hundreds of representatives of the public administration system at various levels of the power hierarchy have fled to Western countries after the start of the SMO. We should note that the direct duties of these people included the execution of the instructions of the head of state; many of them had access to state secrets; in fact, the President had to rely on these very representatives of the ruling elites until the special military operation made everything straight.

“First, former Prime Minister Kasyanov and eight (!) former deputy prime ministers fled there [abroad]. Moreover, three more ex-deputy prime ministers and at least one acting deputy prime minister split time between two countries.

Second, if we count the ex-heads of the Presidential Administration (!) – Yumashev, Voloshin and Chubais, as well as all the ministers and their deputies (like Kozyrev, Skrynnik, Vavilov, Chuyan, Reimer, etc.) who fled

Russia, then it will be another 50 people, not to mention dozens of ex-governors and vice-governors and hundreds of officials of the federal government alone.

Third, if we count those high-ranking officials of the Russian Federation who have sent their children abroad and, therefore, are somehow preparing to go there themselves, then these are dozens and dozens of personalities.

Fourth, despite the SMO, ex-deputy prime ministers and ex-ministers continue to flee there unhindered

(Chubais, Kudrin), along with the stolen money and state secrets. The list of former deputy prime ministers includes:

Ilya Klebanov – in Israel, Alexander Khloponin – in Israel, Anatoly Chubais – in Italy,

Alfred Koch – in Germany, Yakov Urinson – in Israel, Andrey Kudrin – in Israel...”33

Arkady Dvorkovich – in the USA, Maxim Akimov – in Israel,

“The difficulties and challenges we are facing work as incentives for all of us, incentives to increase the pace and quality of transformations …” ³⁴ , – the head of state noted on June 16 at the plenary session of the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum. However, the current situation, which is almost wartime, brings certain conditions for the success of the implementation of long overdue transformations: both the growing threats to national security and the need to correct many mistakes of the past in an emergency mode reinforce the importance of the task that many experts have been talking about since the beginning of the SMO – the importance of a radical paradigm shift in thinking and perception of the current moment of time for the entire Russian society and especially its elite. According to experts, “the stakes are extremely high, the question is “to be or not to be”.

“When the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, Russian President Vladimir Putin, launched the special military operation to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine, the course of history was changed. Irreversibly changed. We are witnessing the case when they say “The die is cast”, “We have crossed the Rubicon” and “There is no way back”... Now no one is able to influence anything, and no one can do it the way it used to be before… The stakes are extremely high ... the question is “To be or not to be” ³⁵.

It is necessary to understand: in order not to lose their “hegemonic” position, the United States and the UK together with their “vassals” (Vladimir Putin noted that “they don’t have allies, they only have vassals” ³⁶ ) will strive to do everything so that Russia cannot emerge victorious from this civilizational conflict.

Therefore, today is not the time for entertainment, for calculating any individual financial benefits or discussions about the future. And this is not the time for complacency about the inevitability of a Russian victory. State Duma deputy K.F. Zatulin rightly noted that “talking about the fact that it is inevitable is just discouraging”.

On the contrary, this is a time when all the strata of society should unite in realizing that any other option, except for Russia’s unconditional victory in this war, will have the most negative impact not only on Russian statehood, but also on the individual life of each individual citizen.

Nevertheless, according to experts, “Russian society has not yet managed to realize the depth, scale and perspective of the growing civilizational crisis in the Russian Federation (and maybe an impending catastrophe)” ³⁷ . According to VCIOM, the overwhelming majority of Russians (68–73%) from the very beginning support the decision of the President of the Russian Federation to conduct the

“The enemy is dangerous and armed; it can be seen with the naked eye. The question is that, in my opinion, we cannot do enough today. We don’t have enough reasons to be complacent... in fact, we are in a very difficult situation. In a situation where mobilization is required of us. It requires the transfer of not only industry, but also life on military rails, in order to have the victory that we all dream of. Talking about the fact that it is inevitable is just discouraging… we must understand that a number of issues that have not been resolved – they are still, unfortunately, not resolved when it comes to the transition to military rails”38.

“After the drone attack on Moscow, I would like to ask our fellow citizens: what else needs to happen so that you understand that the war will affect everyone?”39

special military operation (Fig. 1) , but 18–20% of the population do not support the SMO.

Figure 1. Do you support or not support the decision to conduct the special military operation of Russia in Ukraine?, % of respondents

—•— I sooner support

— ■ — I sooner don't support —*— It's difficult to answer

Sources: Special military operation: Six months later. VCIOM analytical review. September 6, 2022. Available at: ; Special military operation: A year later. VCIOM analytical review. February 20, 2023. Available at:

These data confirm the expert opinion that instead of the unity necessary for victory, Russian society is divided into three “parties”:

1) “Party for the victory”;
2) “Party for Russia’s immediate defeat”;
3) “Party for Russia’s deferred defeat”.

The Party for the victory is focused on a direct confrontation with the West, in order to bring the SMO to its logical end and securely consolidate the strategic conditions of a multipolar world in which the hegemony of the West will have no place... It is represented on a fairly large scale in Russian society; in the ruling elites, on the contrary, until very recently, this party was in an absolute minority...

The Party for immediate defeat is the “radical liberal opposition” ⁴⁰ , the main resource for the “Kiev regime” to recruit saboteurs operating on the territory of Russia. For example, they carried out terrorist attacks against V. Tatarsky and Z. Prilepin.

The Party for Russia’s deferred defeat is spread primarily among the ruling elites. These are the people who are outwardly loyal to the President and to their goals, but in fact they dream of returning to the past life that was before February 24, 2022. They are entirely oriented toward the West and therefore consider a break with the West as a catastrophe. The West “counts on these people very much” because they have power and do not just share the values and lifestyle of the enemy, but have specific family and financial ties with it.

Nothing other than the activities of the Party for deferred defeat can explain the fact that in conditions of unprecedented threats to national security, when the country is actually fighting for survival, it is facing the following:

V individual representatives of economic and ruling elites (including the highest level) continue to lobby for the idea of “Privatization 2.0” (Insert 2) ;

On April 11, influential banker A. Kostin (President – Chairman of the VTB Management Board) called for “restarting privatization”.

“The party for deferred defeat. Here we are talking about the part of the Russian elite that professes double loyalty: on the one hand, this group is loyal to Putin and recognizes the legitimacy of the orientation toward sovereignty and multipolarity, which means that it supports the SMO and is formally aimed at victory. But, on the other hand, the main orientation of this group is still the modern liberal West, its culture, codes, technologies, practices and trends. Therefore, this macro-figure considers the break with the West as a catastrophe and wants to end the conflict as soon as possible and begin restoring broken ties”⁴¹.

V historical archives are formed with the participation of institutions funded by the government of unfriendly countries;

“Almost all the collections to which the leadership of the Russian State Archive of Modern History was related, contain the following idea: the Soviet period of Russia’s history consists of tragedies, and the Soviet leadership consisted mainly of imbeciles... behind most of these collections is the German Historical Institute in Moscow, which was funded by the German government for a long time ”⁴².

V as before, the party continues to be in the legal field, openly calling the SMO “the gravest crime” that is “contrary to the national interests of Russia” ⁴³ ;

Yabloko demands from President Putin an immediate cessation of hostilities... and the start of emergency peace talks with international mediation.

How do we want someone to respect us somewhere, when we ourselves are trampling ourselves into the mud, allowing representatives of forces hostile to Russia to ignore our laws on our territory directly and with impunity for almost a decade? ”⁴⁴

Excerpt from the report “Monitoring of the content and form of submission of materials of the Boris Yeltsin Museum, part of the Yeltsin Center”, conducted in September – October 2022 by an interdisciplinary expert group”47:

“The Yeltsin Center carries out propaganda activities correlated with the ideological attitudes of liberalism ... that conflict with the traditional values of Russia as a country-civilization.

The materials of the Yeltsin Center contradict the legislation of the Russian Federation.

Being a state organization , the Yeltsin Center in its expositions and materials represents positions that contradict the state agenda .

Only on June 15, 2023, Deputy Minister of Justice of the Russian Federation O. Sviridenko said that the Ministry of Justice of the Russian Federation has begun a “deep check” ⁴⁸ of the Yeltsin Center Museum on the subject of the activities of a foreign agent.

V despite the results of independent examinations and constant attention from the media ⁴⁵ , the Yeltsin Center – a state institution that is openly engaged in illegal anti-state propaganda (as the results of an independent examination showed ⁴⁶ ) (Insert 3) is still functioning.

“We pay dearly for the theft and luxury parties of admirers and defenders of the Yeltsin Center and Yeltsin himself. We pay with blood, with the lives of our children. I think everyone understands what and how to do with the creators and signatories of collective appeals in defense of this legal entity”49.

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The presented facts confirm the expert opinion that a significant part of the Russian elite today is actually “anti-national” ⁵⁵ . At the same time, it is futile to count on the fact that a part of the elite that has sworn allegiance to the West will somehow suddenly change by itself, and a revolution from above” in the conditions of the SMO is impractical, since in such a situation “the administrative apparatus can only be destroyed, and completely destroying the state apparatus means destroying the state” ⁵⁶ .

“…We cannot recognize the terrorist state of Ukraine as a terrorist state, ... because then the domestic bureaucracy will not be able to pursue its policy of “here we fight – here we trade”... there is a firm feeling that a critically significant part of the Russian government still considers the events after the fascist coup in Ukraine, and the entire presidency of Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, as some kind of misunderstanding that you just have to wait out so that everything goes back to normal – to the 1990s, blessed for them and bloody for everyone else, when Russia was a colony not only economically, as it is now, but also politically and administratively…”⁵⁷

In this regard, the pessimistic views of some experts about the renewal of the management system and the country as a whole (and, therefore, about the country’s successful resolution of the current confrontation with the Collective West) look quite understandable and justified.

“Currently, experts do not see that the Russian “elite” contains any significant group that would offer the country an adequate program of transformation and would be seriously aimed at its implementation ... Speaking in the language of political science, there are no objective prerequisites for positive changes in today’s Russia ”⁵⁸.

But we should also note that after the start of the SMO, the President and the Government actually make managerial decisions on an operational basis aimed at limiting the possibilities of the Party for deferred defeat.

V This, in particular, concerns the nationalization of the property of oligarchs and assets of unfriendly countries – a topic that was virtually taboo until February 24, 2022, and today is appearing more and more often in the public space (and among the highest-level officials) and has real precedents as well.

V This also applies to the measures taken by the Mishustin Government (in pursuance of the Presidential Decree) to de-offshorize the Russian economy, the measure which is hardly noticeable to ordinary citizens, but which has important political significance – from May 30, companies that have offshore companies among their beneficiaries will not be able to receive financial support from the state.

“The topic of nationalization was taboo until February 24 last year, when the special military operation began in Ukraine, followed by a powerful sanctions war of the Collective West against Russia. That’s when calls for nationalization sounded from the mouths of many politicians and public figures”59.

On June 30, 2022, the President of the Russian Federation signed a decree “On the application of special economic measures in the fuel and energy sector in connection with the unfriendly actions of some foreign states and international organizations”. It provided for the nationalization of Sakhalin Energy Investment Company, Ltd., operating within the framework of the well-known Sakhalin-2 project.

Later, another precedent arose – the nationalization of various objects of movable and immovable property of Ukrainian oligarchs in Crimea by the decision of the Crimean State Council…

In November 2022, State Duma deputies from the Just Russia party reported on the preparation of draft laws on the nationalization of assets of foreign legal entities and individuals.

On May 13, at the Saint Petersburg International Legal Forum, the chairman of the Investigative Committee of Russia A. Bastrykin proposed nationalizing the main sectors of the country’s economy. This is the first time that an official of such a high rank has spoken out on the issue of nationalization, and unequivocally in favor of it ”⁶⁰.

“The State Duma very reasonably forbade providing any kind of state support to offshore companies. However, the offshore business simply did not pay attention to this, having achieved through the obedient “majority party” an elegant formulation according to which state support could not be provided only to an offshore company directly.

If an offshore company conducted business in Russia through a domestic “gasket” (like all retail food chains, except for “Magnit”), all restrictions were not only removed, but were not even implied: “what are you driving at, how dare you suspect conscientious oligarchs... I mean, entrepreneurs, this is a flawless Russian company!”

Mishustin’s government stopped this bureaucratic anti-Russian perversion by introducing an insignificant at first glance, formally editorial clarification, thanks to which, from May 30, companies with offshore companies among their beneficiaries will not be able to receive financial state support (no matter how many “pads” these offshore companies have as their cover)” ⁶¹.

May 29, according to the Presidential Decree ⁶² , the presidium of the Board of the Military-Industrial Commission was formed, which included presidential envoys in the federal districts. According to experts, the President thus “purposefully involves” his plenipotentiaries “in the realities of the military political agenda, covertly, emphasizing a more active public position of the plenipotentiaries with the help of the military-industrial complex” ⁶³ .

system for those representatives of the ruling elites who still remain in the liberal past, do not want or cannot rebuild on a nationally oriented agenda set by the beginning of the SMO. And, what is very important, this work is being carried out painstakingly, without panic and without any revolutionary upheavals for both the public administration system and society as a whole.

According to the decree, Presidential plenipotentiaries should ensure coordination of the activities of government agencies at different levels “to solve problems related to the implementation of investment projects to ensure the production of samples of weapons, military, special equipment, clothing and equipment, assistance to organizations of the militaryindustrial complex in attracting labor resources and increasing the level of social guarantees for employees of such organizations”64.

The above facts indicate that the President and the Government are actively taking measures not only to organize the life of the country during the SMO ( Insert 3 ), but also purposefully create conditions for limiting the possibilities of influencing the work of the public administration

The situation at the front “defines sociopolitical processes, dictates the need to abandon any liberal-collaborationist historical and historiosophical concepts and, in addition, indicates the urgent need to implement long overdue personnel decisions”65.

The Russian army, which continues to keep the situation on the front line under control, thus providing time for solving internal issues, for the internal mobilization of the country, regarding not only the military-industrial complex, but also the system of public administration, economy, and culture and society as a whole, gives the opportunity to solve current internal problems in this way, while minimizing risks to the state…

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In fact, the situation on the front line and the success of achieving the goals of the SMO define the conditions and the time period for which the country should “restart, reset, and, if necessary, replace the already nonfunctioning regulators with those that meet the requirements of modernity” ⁷¹ .

But such a “restart of regulators” of public life (especially in today’s almost military conditions) can only be carried out by a strong reformer, which means that the President will have to show political will more than once and make more than one difficult decision.

“ SMERSH is not just needed, it was needed the day before yesterday. And today we need a working SMERSH. Today SMERSH would have to operate throughout Russia and have special powers in the territories that are adjacent to the combat zone, and those that have recently joined Russia. SMERSH is something without which we will not be able to fight effectively... we have the FSB, we have military counterintelligence agencies. B ut SMERSH is an organization that has special powers. If SMERSH says that it is necessary to evict 20 thousand people from a certain area for a month, then this decision must be implemented. If it is necessary to disconnect all communication, then it is done with one click. If it is necessary, then it is done. Because this is the front, and life depends on it. SMERSH should deal with all this, since it should have the right to do so”⁷².

In particular, many experts (quite reasonably, given the terrorist attacks taking place on the territory of Russia and the significance of developments on the front line) actively advocate the re-establishment of SMERSH, an organization with special powers dictated in fact by wartime and the unprecedented nature of threats to national security.

At the same time, we should note that such proposals to strengthen intelligence and counterterrorism measures and, in general, to create tougher conditions in the country in order to ensure national security are supported not only by many specialists, but also by broad segments of the population. Thus, the results of a sociological survey conducted by VolRC RAS in May – June 2023 showed that from 50 to 60% of people support the proposals made by the experts of the Izborsk Club ⁷³ – on the introduction of martial law on the territory of new constituent entities of the Russian Federation and the regime of counterterrorism operations in other regions of Russia, on the abolition of the moratorium on the death penalty, on the granting of special powers to units of the National Guard and Military Police, etc. ⁷⁴ ( Tab. 3). The idea of recreating SMERSH, in particular, was supported by more than half of the surveyed population in the majority (in 11 out of 14) of the socio-demographic groups (Tab. 4).

Table 3. Attitude toward measures to strengthen the set of operational search, intelligence and counterintelligence measures, % of respondents*

Answer option	I fully and mostly support	I fully and mostly don’t support
Introduction of martial law in the new Russian territories (Donetsk People’s Republic, Lugansk People’s Republic, Kherson and Zaporozhye oblasts), as well as in the territories being shelled by the armed forces of Ukraine	63.3	11.9
Introduction of a counter-terrorism operation regime throughout the Russian Federation, except for regions where martial law is established	58.0	13.6
Severance of diplomatic relations with any countries organizing attacks on Russian embassies	57.9	14.5
The Federal Law “On operational search activities” should include a section on the specifics of the implementation of operational search activities in the combat zone during the period of work under martial law, state of emergency, counter-terrorism operations. Operational investigative measures should be carried out in these conditions without court decisions.	56.3	13.6
In the combat zone and frontline regions, to create complex operational intelligence units (departments, groups) from representatives of various subjects of operational search activity according to the SMERSH type	55.6	13.9
Create operational search units in the Military Police, which performs, among other functions, the protection of military facilities	55.5	13.1
Amendments to the Criminal Code, the Criminal Procedure Code and the legislation on judicial proceedings in order to create military tribunals	53.2	14.9
To make a number of units of the National Guard of Russia – military intelligence units and special rapid response units – the subject of operational search activity	52.8	15.1
Conducting trials in absentia against the organizers of sabotage with the imposition of death sentences in absentia and the execution of these sentences on enemy territory	51.7	16.4
Lifting the moratorium on the death penalty (primarily for any murders as a result of terrorist attacks and sabotage)	51.1	19.3
Source: VolRC RAS data. * The survey was conducted in May – June 2023 in the Vologda Oblast; 1,500 respondents over the age of 18 were interviewed in the cities of Vologda and Cherepovets; in Babaevsky, Velikoustyugsky, Vozhegodsky, Gryazovetsky, Tarnogsky municipal okrugs, and in Kirillovsky, Nikolsky and Sheksninsky municipal districts of the region. The survey method is a questionnaire at the place of residence of respondents. The sample is targeted, quota-based. The representativeness of the sample is ensured by observing the proportions between urban and rural populations, the proportions between residents of settlements of various types (rural settlements, small and medium-sized cities), the sex and age structure of the adult population of the oblast. Sampling error does not exceed 3%. Ranked in descending order of the proportion of those who answered “I support”. The wording of the question: “In May 2023, the members of the Izborsk Club made a statement about the need to take a number of measures at the state level to strengthen the complex of operational search, intelligence and counterintelligence measures to prevent sabotage and terrorist acts. Do you support the proposed measures?” (the share of those who “found it difficult to answer” for each of the proposed answer options was 25–30%).

Table 4. Do you support the creation of integrated operational intelligence units (departments, groups) in the combat zone and front-line regions from representatives of various subjects of operational search activity like those resembling SMERSH?, % of respondents

Characteristic	I support	I don’t support
Sex
Men	58.5	13.1
Women	53.3	14.6
Age
Under 30	48.6	8.4
30–55	55.6	14.5
Over 55	58.1	15.2
Education
Secondary and incomplete secondary	57.2	8.9
Secondary vocational	53.9	16.1
Higher and incomplete higher	55.5	17.4
Income group
Bottom 20%	49.6	11.0
Middle 60%	56.1	12.5
Top 20%	62.9	20.6
Territory
Vologda	44.0	22.4
Cherepovets	64.0	14.3
Districts	57.4	8.9
Oblast	55.6	13.9
Source: VolRC RAS data. The survey was conducted in the Vologda Oblast in May – June 2023.

Thus, the expediency of a substantive discussion of measures to strengthen the set of operational search, intelligence and counterintelligence measures is explained not only by the actions of the enemy, but also by a significant number of our own internal problems. Including those which were discussed on June 13 at the meeting of the RF President with war correspondents and which, in fact, have to be solved today in an “emergency” mode, under pressure from external and internal, virtually uncontrollable, circumstances.

Today’s time is still called wartime with reservations, but it absolutely cannot be called peaceful, and this requires appropriate changes in the consciousness and behavior of all strata of Russian society, including (or rather, first of all) its “elite” groups: the country should be sensitive to the challenges of the time, and the elite should be in unity with the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, otherwise the state cannot avoid a full-scale catastrophe.

“Ignoring the links between the state of public life and the state of law is a manifestation of monstrous shortsightedness...

If the country is not ready to respond sensitively to the challenges of the time ...

If the elite resists the political leader who has caught these challenges and is filled with a desire to build a new type of relations between the elite and the people ...

If the intelligentsia is only able to discredit everything that comes from the leader, and at the crucial moment it turns out to be unable to solve the urgent tasks either in a reformist or revolutionary way...

How, in the presence of all these destructive “if” to avoid a full-scale state catastrophe? And who is responsible for it? ...

Only a strong reformer, limiting the arbi– trariness of the authorities, can prevent an explosion and “let those healthy elements that dwell in the heart of the Russian land breathe” ⁷⁵.

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