Factors contributing to Russia's demographic development: panel data research experience

Since 2016, the second stage of depopulation has begun in Russia: the mortality rate exceeded the birth rate again, natural increase was replaced by population decline. Forecasts indicate an increase in this negative trend in the coming decades. The loss of population as a consequence of natural decline is partly compensated by migration growth, however, the immigration resource is gradually exhausting, which makes studying the factors determining the current demographic trends relevant for understanding the causes and determining the possibilities for managing them. The aim of the article is to analyze a complex of factors of different nature and the direction of their influence on the demographic development of Russia and its regions. The author considers and summarizes theoretical approaches to the identification of factors of birth rate, mortality and life expectancy, population migration. To achieve the object of the study, the method of regression analysis of panel data was used. The data of the Federal State Statistics Service for the period from 2010 to 2017 on 80 subjects of the Russian Federation was used as the information base. The total fertility rate, life expectancy at birth, and intensity factors for arrival and departure were the dependent variables. A set of indicator factors was formed for each variable; the most significant ones were selected through correlation analysis from each of them. Then three models were built: combined regression, regression with fixed effects and with random effects. In the course of their pairwise comparison, the model most suitable for analysis was selected - in all cases, regression with fixed effects. It was found that during the analyzed period the birth rate was significantly influenced by the population standard of living, the amount of health care, physical education and sports financing, as well as the infants’ state of health. The greatest contribution to the population’s life expectancy was made by morbidity factors in a number of classes and reasons, the level of well-being, rising prices for goods and services, social mental health, and working conditions safety. The factors of living standards, economic development and innovation played a significant role in the determination of migration processes.