Forecasting the effects of raising the retirement age on Russia's demographic structure

Автор: Chistova Elena Vitalevna, Chichkanov Valerii Petrovich

Журнал: Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en

Статья в выпуске: 3 (45) т.9, 2016 года.

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The paper assesses the possibility of raising the retirement age to mitigate the effects of ageing on the pension system of Russia. The authors make demographic forecasts based on hypotheses about the presence of global demographic trends in population reproduction and manifestations of development features specific for Russia. The demographic forecast is based on the age shifting method according to three scenarios. The forecast takes into account the provisions of a draft law that has already been approved and that provides for a gradual increase in age limit for civil servants, both men and women, to 65 years (by six months each year). The following assumption is made for the purpose of studying the effects of raising the retirement age to 65 years for all categories of Russian citizens. The increase in the retirement age begins in 2016 at the rate of 6 months per year, and it will end for men in 2026 and for women - in 2036. Thus, by 2036, the official retirement age will be 65 years for both sexes...

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Pension system, retirement age, demographic forecast, population ageing, global demographic trends and russian peculiarities

Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/147223832

IDR: 147223832 | DOI: 10.15838/esc.2016.3.45.7

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