Formalizing the economic immunity of industrial regions: A pilot testing experience

Industrial regions, which constitute the core of Russia's technological development and underpin its leadership positions on the global stage, deserve particular attention as they find themselves under the influence of geo-economic factors. The aim of this study is to develop a methodological approach that makes it possible to formalize the economic immunity of industrial regions in the face of adverse external impacts. The theoretical and methodological basis includes a set of approaches to assessing the shock resilience of territories and to identifying the dependence of their economic development on prior trajectories. The principal methodological toolkit proposed in the study is a matrix that integrates, on the one hand, assessments of the economic predisposition of industrial regions toward resistance and recovery – which determines the protective mechanisms against external shocks – and, on the other, narrative express analysis, which reveals the preconditions for the genesis of a new economic development trend that underpins a territory's adaptation to changing economic conditions. The study period spans 2009–2025; testing was carried out on 36 industrial regions of the Russian Federation. According to the resulting matrix, the indicators that proved most sensitive during the period of exposure to external shocks in regions where manufacturing accounts for ≥ 25% of GRP are the average annual number of people employed in manufacturing and spending on technological innovation. In industrial regions with a diversified economy, it is fixed capital investment that suffers substantially. At the same time, industrial regions with a diversified economy display greater economic resilience than regions specializing in manufacturing. The Novosibirsk Region possesses the strongest economic immunity, followed by the Moscow Region and the Republic of Tatarstan. Half of the industrial regions are characterized by vulnerable economic immunity, and 36% have a disruptive protective mechanism alongside a vulnerable activating mechanism. It is stressed that factoring in the predisposition of regions, as one of the elements of economic immunity, will make it possible to ensure the evolutionary nature of the national economy's development. The findings may prove useful to public authorities in improving regional strategies for socio-economic development.