Grain subcomplex of agrarian and industrial complex as factor of a sustainable development of rural territories of the Orel region

Formation of social and economic structures, to our mind, is a problem having centuries-old history. In spite of importance and strategic character of this problem, it isn't paid much attention to its discussion. Formation of ways of life in the village historically happened under the influence of external factors, such as a political regime, public ideology, religion, land management that often keep under the creation of natural, economically reasonable, pragmatic social and economic state of life. The social and economic structure here should be understood as set of the production, ideological, cultural and spiritual relations which are presented in all spheres of human life and activities.

The great pressure was put upon by a political and ideological system of this or that era, beginning from a serfdom and ending Soviet and Post-Soviet periods to social and economic structure of villagers' life. At first it was "communities", then strong experienced managers and their cooperatives (P.A.Stolypin's times), then artificially created, not always economically reasonable collective farm and in these conditions all remained in benefit but peasants [4].

Now the rural community, in the opinion of present authorities, by right looks as strategically important object for the country, a number one priority in the conditions of the rigid international relations. Food security, territories control, cultural identity, sustainment are the functions which are carried out by the village. Therefore it is very actual to speak about formation of new, viable, and economically reasonable and at the same time adequate social and economic structure of life which would be not only quality pledge of life of the population, but also it is traditional, for many regions, a high-performance agrarian stimulator of development [4 Nowadays, social and economic development of agriculture as one of the most significant radical ways of life of citizens and society, is an important link in ensuring stability and safety of the country.. Agriculture is not simply economy branch. It is also habitat, a way of life, the most important strategic factor of territory fixing to the state.

Certainly, proceeding from the theory of the comparative trade advantages formulated in due time by the classic of political economy of D. Ricardo, production of agricultural products in a certain territory of Russia is unreasonable because of big expenses. But it is also undoubted that the similar circumstance naturally doesn't mean that it is necessary to stop all agricultural production in the most part of the territory of the country and completely to pass to food import Finally it will lead to undermining the food and economic security, to control loss over own territory. Moreover, from multitask positions usefulness of agriculture for society needs must be considered in two aspects at least. In the first, as producer of quite material and tangible benefit - agricultural production. In the second, as producer of a specific type of the public benefits. These benefits can be not only ensuring food security of the country, but also social control over territories, preservation of historically developed landscape, reproduction of traditional culture of society. Such benefits shouldn't be considered as additional affixes to the "main" function of agriculture – to production. They aren't less important and significant at all as in big degree promote strengthening of geopolitical position of the country, create conditions for satisfaction of social and spiritual and recreational requirements of society [4] The modern agrarian structure all over the world is gradually integrated, the share of large producers grows. At the same time, in many countries rather large number of small forms of managing which continue to make the majority of agricultural objects remains in many countries.

According to agricultural census in 2006, 27787 large and average agricultural organizations and 20392 small agricultural enterprises were in Russia. It is also necessary to take into account private subsidiary and other individual farms of citizens (the farms which have the plots of land with an area of 4 and more of hundred decare and engaged in agricultural production) in number of 22,8 million units which are a small major form of managing in Russia, making more than 50% of agricultural production [1].

The importance of agricultural production in rural areas of the Orel region is extremely high. The richest natural potential, geographic-climatic conditions, unequivocally defines an agrarian orientation of rural territories of the region. The agrarian production pays great attention on a life social and economic structure developed in the village, the traditional way of life got into all spheres of activity of villagers. Thus, it is especially necessary to mark a role of a grain subcomplex of the region, which by right occupies the greatest specific weight from the cost of made production in agriculture. In 2012 Orel region gross grain harvest in weight after completion made 2070,4 thousand tons, so this region took the 4th place on production grain in the central region of the country (figure 1). According to forecasts for 2013 grain gross collecting has to increase approximately by 4% and make 2150 thousand tons. It proves once more the huge agricultural capacity of the region, considerable natural and geographical opportunities and as a result high living standards of country people [3].

Figure 1 - Distribution of rural settlements of the Orel region on number of inhabitants (people)

However, dynamics of the last several ten years showed that to rural territories of the region, contrary to steady, forward growth rates of agricultural production of the Orel region, such negative feature as depopulation is inherent. The region loses rural settlements annually, high rates population decreases that, certainly, in the short term can result in emptiness of the territory, loss of a cultural heritage, control over the territory and as a whole sat down, as multifunctional subsystem of society. In 2007 about 2921 settlements, 223 rural settlements are in the region. The main types of rural settlements of the Orel region are small and big villages. During the period between population censuses in the region the number of rural settlements was reduced by 220 settlements, thus the structure of distribution of rural settlements of the Orel region on number of inhabitants didn't change. Now still the greatest specific weight is occupied by settlements with number of inhabitants from 10 to 100 people (figure 1) [1].

Therefore, the main task facing today the state, scientific community is identification of major factors promoting prevention of extinction of "village" and village restoration, its sustainable development. Certainly, there are many factors influencing development of a difficult subsystem of society "big village". It is both economic (production) and social, ecological, political, and natural.

However, one of the main factors, in our opinion, is the factor of formation of a social and economic structure of peasants' life which includes both economic (agricultural production) and a social component. It is understood that this criterion as we already spoke earlier is applied not to all regions of the Russian Federation, but for the Orel region is the main one. In this regard an important condition of research is necessity of definition what criteria have a greater impact on development of territories.

By means of the multiple-factor regression analysis, two models were constructed and compared. Factors characterizing influence of a level of development of a grain subcomplex of the region (economic), as dominating in agrarian sector of area were considered in one of them. In other model, factors characterizing level of the social development, infrastructures of rural territories considering a level of development. The indicator acted as a productive indicator characterizing settlement density of rural areas, as a major factor characterizing attraction of territories to the population. Level of this productive indicator fully allows to estimate improvement of living conditions, an assessment of wellbeing and further prospects of development of the village. Comparison of the constructed models will allow to build priorities in policy of a sustainable development and to define the most important measures promoting to prevent a desolation of territories, village loss as an important subsystem of society of the region. The following factorial characteristics entered into the first multiplefactor model: X1 - output of grain and leguminous crops on 1 people (in actually effective prices), one thousand rubles; X2 - an index of production of grain and leguminous crops (in the comparable prices; as a percentage to previous year), %; X3 - cultivated areas of grain and leguminous crops in farms of all categories, hectare. As a productive indicator acts: Y -density of country people, the people on 1 sq.km [1] the multiple equation of regression is received as a result of the analysis:

У=10,9+0,00001Х1-0,01Х2-0,0003Х3

Having convinced of the statistical importance of the regression equation, its parameters and indicators of multiple-factor communication with the help of F-criterion of Fischer and t-statistics Studenta, it is possible with probability 95% to make rather reliable conclusions. The calculated multiple coefficient of correlation of R=0,78, testifies that connection of factorial signs with the productive is very essential. The multiple index of determination which is equal R² = 0,61, allows to make a conclusion that 61% of change of population density are caused by influence of economic factors considered in model, and other 39% of change of population density are caused by other factors which aren't considered in this model. Besides having ranged factors on force of influence on the result (with the help β -coefficients and average coefficients of elasticity) it is necessary to conclude that the level of production of grain (X1) has the greatest impact on population density, on the second place is the amount of crops grain (X3), and the index of production of grain and leguminous crops has the smallest impact.

Besides, it should be noted that factorial signs in this model were chosen not casually. The choice of factors was preceded by the correlation analysis which displayed the signs are closely connected with a productive indicator. Also it should be noted that the nuance of this model consists that the first and third factorial signs purposely have functional connection with a productive that is, in a denominator of calculation of the first factor, population of areas is considered, and the essential part of the third factor (the area of crops) is included into a denominator of a productive indicator (population density) as it pays off on 1 hectare of the territory which essential part is made by grain crops. Thus, considering this mathematical link, growth of the first and third factor has to generate decrease in population density. However the share of regression is great and system effect of influence of factorial signs in model is great as well that to a great degree gives the grounds to say that settling of rural territories of the Orel region largely (for 61%) positively is influenced by a level of development of a grain subcomplex of the region. That is the higher indicators of grain production are, the higher population of territories is. This statement says that grain production stimulates settling of territories and as a result, is a source of life of the Orel village.

Further we will examine multiple-factor regression model with group of "social" factors, where: X1 - security of children with constant preschool institutions, %; X2 - the volume of household services per capita, rub; X3 - improvement of housing stock, % [1]. The indicator of population density of rural areas is still much resulted. The multiple equation of regression is received in the result of the analysis:

У=10,9+0,00001Х1-0,01Х2-0,0003Х3

Factorial signs in this model were chosen not casually as well. The choice of factors was preceded by the correlation analysis, which displayed that signs are closely connected with a resulted indicator. Making sure of the statistical importance of the regression equation, its parameters and indicators of multiple-factor connection with the help of F-criterion of Fischer and t-statistics Studenta, it is possible with probability 95% to make rather reliable conclusions. The calculated multiple coefficient of correlation of R=0,29, shows that connection of factorial signs with the productive is characterized as rather "poor”. The multiple index of determination which is equal R² = 0,08, allows to make a conclusion that only 8% of change of population density are caused by influence of economic factors considered in model, and other 92% of change of population density are caused by other factors which aren't considered in this model. So, the conclusion is that this model can be estimated as insignificant, and the chosen group of factors not significant for the analysis.

The factors presented in "social" model as in "economic" also, don't cover all range of the main social and economic indicators significantly rendering on the result, but, nevertheless, the made analysis allowed to define priorities and with a certain share of probability to confirm that today, in rural areas of the region indisputable potential is agricultural production which in many respects defines a standard of living of villagers, their material and moral well-being. In particular, surely, the question is about the development of plant growing, a grain subcomplex of agrarian and industrial complex of the region.

As practice showed, in future, reversibility of number reduction process of rural areas inhabitants in the Orel region, will depend on many respects on rates growth of agricultural production, increase in grain production, competitiveness of agricultural producers in the conditions of the entry of the Russian Federation into the WTO.