Ridge model for predicting demographic indicators of the Russian education system

The purpose of this study was to use the author's Comb model to study the dynamics of demographic indicators on which the effectiveness and "uniform" workload of all levels of the Russian education system depends. The object of the study are the age cohorts of the Russian population, the subject is the optimal workload of the levels of the education system with the account of new challenges, including those caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Development of modern Russian society, socio-economic projects and well-being of the population are largely determined by demographic indicators, such as fertility, life expectancy, mortality, the number of able-bodied population, etc. At present demographic problems, as well as ten years ago, are caused primarily by the change in the age structure of the population. In 2012, a research team headed by RAS Academician N. M. Rimashevskaya developed and applied the "Ridge model of the age structure of children and youth", which, using econometric forecasting approaches, makes it possible to forecast demographic dynamics in the education system. Based on the simulation results, with a certain probability, it is possible to predict the number of required places at various levels of training. Today, the President of the Russian Federation, the Government and the leading regional authorities of the country pay great attention to this problem. In the country, in parallel with other significant National projects, the Demography project has been implemented since 2019, one of the tasks of which (target indicator) is to increase the total fertility rate (up to 1.7). This once again underlines the relevance of the chosen topic and the author's tools (Comb model). The article uses data from the Federal Statistics Service, analytical materials of demographers, results of studies, including the author's, conducted using software for calculating the Ridge model in various regions. The cohort age structure of children and youth was projected using the author's tools for various levels of the education system in the Russian Federation, Moscow city, Moscow, Ryazan, Vladimir, Tula and Vologda oblasts. The results of the conducted research may be relevant and practically significant for the government structures that are directly involved in settling the issues related to regional and national demographic indicators. The material can be used for theoretical study of demography issues by students in professional educational institutions of middle and senior management, as well as demographers, analysts and other specialists dealing with demography issues.