Международная безопасность. Рубрика в журнале - Вестник ВолГУ. Серия: История. Регионоведение. Международные отношения
Статья научная
Introduction. Film offers a valuable mirror to reflect on how we assess our present and past. The Cold War was one of the most troubled periods in history. Two huge, wealthy, energetic, and creative societies competed in all areas. During those decades of electric change and development they faced each other with weapons of ever increasing lethality. The film industry in both countries looked at how the nuclear exchange would impact in both lands. Over the decades as the weaponry changed, as the patterns of leadership changed, as the economy of the world evolved, both nations’ film industry painted different images of what Armageddon could look like. If we compare comparable films, across similar decades, what do we learn of that era and those people? Methods and Materials. The methods used in the article are comparative, analytical and functional systematic ones. The materials used are the following: 1) five films of both cultures from different decades; 2) secondary accounts of contemporary events; 3) secondary reviews of the selected films, and 4) secondary accounts of parallel incidents. Analysis. With the complex weapons of the Cold War era we certainly need to worry about the technological imperative and the potential role of accident and unintended consequences. However, we are blessed that the doom day scenario has not yet erupted. We are most fortunate that the dire warning of many US filmmakers have not been realized. Indeed with the coming advent of AI technology and 5G communications, we may have more to fear than ever before. Results. After fifty some years of the Cold War, films continue to project the worst fears of people. As we review these films across the several decades we see constancy, the films again and again distrust technology.
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Статья научная
Introduction. No doubt that the Iran-USA nuclear deal of 2015 got fame in the international politics. Some countries were in favor of such a deal and some were against this development. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) has more concerns over the Iran nuclear deal, it feels that after the deal Iran will become a regional power and will increase its military and political power which will disturb the regional securityand stability. As the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) itself provokes the creation of such conditions, thus their influence in the Middle East will be affected. Analysis. The article analyzes the concerns of Israel, implications for Turkey, the question why deal is beneficial for Pakistan, economic concerns of Saudi Arabia, implications for Persian Gulf and Middle East, economic implications for Turkey, economic opportunities for Pakistan. After the nuclear deal, Iran becomes a regional power and increases its political and economic influence in the region, especially in the Persian Gulf. The world says that Iran cannot get nuclear weapons after the deal because it has no such a capacity. However, according to some findings from the documents of the deal Iran is not blocked to become a nuclear power and the deal legitimizes the nuclear program. So, on the other hand after the Iran nuclear deal the regional political and economic environment is totally favorable to Iran. On the other hand, scholars believe that the United States of America (USA) operate in terms of diplomatic competition. From the economic standpoint, the deal will be favorable for Iran. Thus, some countries have objections related to the deal, while others express a positive attitude towards it. Results. Pakistan will be able to generate economic opportunities from Iran, especially with the help of Iran-Pakistan-India Gas pipeline project (IPI project). Consequences of the deal will be beneficial for the regional economic development of the Middle East and South Asia respectively.
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Статья научная
Целью данной статьи является введение в методологический арсенал современной политической науки концепции сверхдлинных военных циклов (далее - СВЦ) российского политолога, философа и филолога Вадима Леонидовича Цымбурского (1957-2009 гг.) и выявление с ее помощью потенциальных ключевых угроз современной системе международной безопасности. В статье выдвигается гипотеза о досрочном завершении последнего из выделенных В.Л. Цымбурским СВЦ, начавшегося с изобретением ядерного оружия в 1945 г. и характеризовавшегося преобладанием возможностей уничтожения над мобилизацией - так называемый «депрессивный» СВЦ. Последний характеризуется отсутствием широкомасштабных длительных войн, устойчивостью мировой политической системы. Автор статьи доказывает, что под воздействием научно-технических открытий в сфере вооружений (высокоточное оружие в сочетании с ядерными боезарядами пониженной мощности, «роевое» оружие, кибернетическое оружие, биологическое оружие, глобальная система противоракетной обороны) и социально-политических технологий (манипулирование потоками беженцев, «гибридная война», глобальное ослабление национальных идентичностей и социальное расслоение наций с формированием «интернационала элит») великие державы стоят на пороге преодоления «ядерного тупика» и входа мировой политической системы в фазу повышенного риска развития полномасштабной мировой войны. В ближайшие десятилетия мир может войти в стадию «экспансивного» СВЦ, характеризующегося возвращением к ставке на мобилизационные ресурсы как основному фактору в военно-политическом противоборстве. Один из эффективных способов сохранения мира автор статьи видит в развитии общественной дипломатии, многосторонних международных контактах на уровне негосударственных акторов.
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