Identifying the dynamics of changes in Russia's human potential in the context of the experience of Eurasian integration
Автор: Osadchaya Galina I., Vartanova Marina L.
Журнал: Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Рубрика: Global experience
Статья в выпуске: 3 т.15, 2022 года.
Бесплатный доступ
The problem of identifying the dynamics of changes in the human potential of the Eurasian Economic Union is in the focus of attention of the EAEU member states; each of them takes its own measures against economic and political risks and threats on the way toward ensuring national demographic security. Russia has formulated and operates its own systems for assessing and monitoring demographic security. However, due to the complex nature of the problem of ensuring the demographic security of the EAEU countries, it must be considered and solved through the implementation of state programs not only within the country, but also within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union as a whole. Our aim is to identify negative trends in demographic development in all post-Soviet countries during the collapse of the USSR, which led to a decrease in human potential in Russia and other EAEU countries, and to substantiate the system of indicators and indices of demographic security in the context of Eurasian integration. We consider the resource opportunities that the EAEU countries obtain due to the functioning of a single integration association, and provide the overview of trends, problems and contradictions of integration processes. Based on the comparative analysis of the demographic situation in the EAEU member states, we can talk about the general indicators of crisis changes: a decrease in the birth rate, an increase in mortality, increased mobility of the population, although each country in these years was characterized by its own special dominants reflecting the demographic situation. Our systematic measurements of the dynamics of changes in Russia’s human potential in the context of integration processes, based on the idea of an empirical model of integration, planning and forecasting within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union, allowed us to identify quantitative and qualitative signs of the functioning of the demographic development of the EAEU countries and develop a number of significant recommendations. The results of the study can be used in the development of the state policy of Russia and the EAEU countries in the field of ensuring the stability of demographic security in the conditions of integration.
Globalization, demographic security, eurasian integration, human development index, international cooperation, migration, population, capital
Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/147238050
IDR: 147238050 | DOI: 10.15838/esc.2022.3.81.12
Текст научной статьи Identifying the dynamics of changes in Russia's human potential in the context of the experience of Eurasian integration
Population of the Eurasian Economic Union (hereinafter referred to as the EAEU) is its real strategic resource. Eurasian integration, of course, has achieved serious success and continues developing, but in this regard, it is of scientific and practical interest to identify the dynamics of changes in the EAEU human potential in the context of integration. The integration goals of the EAEU require increasing its human potential due to fertility, mortality and migration, and ensuring demographic security.
The existing experience of the EAEU functioning in the conditions of the global economic crisis has shown the importance of taking joint measures, as well as expanding integration cooperation. However, the EAEU development is constrained by both external and internal factors (Osadchaya, 2021, p. 9). Integration processes can be represented by a variety of social signs and expressed by systems of indicators: economic, political, socio-cultural and social, resource, procedural and performance. If we record the achievements of Eurasian integration, then among them we can note the creation of a single customs space, providing citizens of the EAEU member states with opportunities for a comfortable common labor market (Vartanova, 2021).
Taking into account the accumulated experience of defining the category, we believe that in the context of integration processes and new globalization challenges, the human potential of the EAEU is “a set of quantitative and qualitative indicators of the population that fundamentally affect the achievement of the Eurasian integration goals characterizing the ability to ensure the sustainable development of the Union and well-being, ensuring demographic security, preventing threats in accordance with the national demographic interests of each member country of the Union” (Osadchaya, 2019).
In order to identify the dynamics of changes in the EAEU human potential in the context of integration, we have conducted a survey of experts representing the scientific community, Eurasian associations and organizations. The survey was attended by 50 experts from member countries and candidates for membership in the Eurasian Economic Union. The first set of questions was devoted to the general assessment of integration processes within the EAEU. In accordance with the purpose of the research, we have set the following tasks:
-
1) to give a sociological characteristic of the success of the integration processes of the member states and candidates for membership in the EAEU;
-
2) to assess the dynamics of human potential changes in the context of Eurasian integration;
-
3) to invite the EAEU regulators to develop recommendations for conducting more in-depth studies of human potential changes of the EAEU countries in the context of integration and new globalization challenges.
Structurally, the expert interview guide included three main blocks of questions. For instance, when assessing the dynamics of human potential changes (Osadchaya, Vartanova, 2021), we have noted that each of the states has its own special structure for regulating the processes of demographic development reflecting the features of the country’s political structure.
When analyzing the success of integration processes (Osadchaya, 2021), most experts pointed to the low pace of the integration process. According to experts, the EAEU has turned into a successful integration association demonstrating an attractive model of cooperation based on the principle of voluntariness. However, imbalances persist in it; integration compromises are not easily achieved. Demographic policy as an integral part of the state policy of the CIS states was based on the principles and norms of international law and international treaties (Osadchaya, 2019).
Список литературы Identifying the dynamics of changes in Russia's human potential in the context of the experience of Eurasian integration
- Castle A., Cora M.D. (2016). Regional Economic Integration and Globalization. Scotts Valley: Create Space Independent Publishing Platform.
- Eganyan R. (2000). Demographic realities and prospects of the Republic of Armenia on the threshold of the 21st century. In: Iontsev V.A. (Ed.). Mezhdunarodnaya migratsiya naseleniya: Rossiya i sovremennyi mir [International Population Migration: Russia and Modern World]. Moscow: MAKS Press (in Russian).
- Glushkova V.G., Khoreva O.B. (2014). The demographic security of Russia and its regions: Problems and solutions. Gumanitarnye nauki. Vestnik finansovogo universiteta=Humanities and Social Sciences. Bulletin of the Financial University, 3, 14–25 (in Russian).
- Goldstone J.A. (2002). Population and security: How demographic change can lead to violent. Journal of International Affairs, 56(1), 3–22.
- Kuur O.V. (2020). Assessment of the effectiveness of the integrative development of the EAEU status participants: Financial and economic aspect. Fundamental’nye issledovaniya=Fundamental Research, 5, 105–111 (in Russian).
- Maksimova A.S., Ryazantsev S.V., Lukyanets A.S., Moiseeva E.M. (2020). Methodological bases for assessing sociodemographic and migration consequences of man-made disasters. Amazonia Investiga, 9(29), 213–223.
- Mansurov T. (2014). Evraziiskii proekt Nursultana Nazarbaeva, voploshchennyi v zhizn’. K 20-letiyu evraziiskogo proekta [The Eurasian Implemented Project of Nursultan Nazarbayev. To the 20th Anniversary of the Eurasian Project]. Moscow.
- Molodikova I.N., Nozdrina N.N. (1998). Migration flows to Russia and their impact on the territorial distribution of the population. Problemy prognozirovaniya=Studies on Russian Economic Development, 6, 121–133 (in Russian).
- Nichiporuk B. (2000). The Security Dynamics of Demographic Factors. Washington, D.C.: RAND.
- Osadchaya G.I. (2019). Socio-demographic aspects of integration processes in the Eurasian Economic Union. In: Stanovlenie Evraziiskogo ekonomicheskogo soyuza: idei, real’nost’, potentsial [Formation of the Eurasian Economic Union: Ideas, Reality, Potential]. Moscow: Ekon-Inform (in Russian).
- Osadchaya G.I. (2021). Evraziiskii ekonomicheskii soyuz: potentsial razvitiya, format sotrudnichestva [Eurasian Economic Union: Development Potential, Cooperation Format]. Moscow: Ekon-Inform.
- Osadchaya G.I., Vartanova M.L. (2021). Demographic security and trends in migration processes in the Eurasian Economic Union during the Covid-19 pandemic. Voprosy upravleniya=Management Issues, 1(68), 62–74 (in Russian).
- Popov A.V., Kalachikova O.N. (2015). Integral Indices in evaluating the demographic security of areas. Natsional’nye interesy: prioritety i bezopasnost’=National Interests: Priorities and Security, 46, 56–66 (in Russian).
- Ryazantsev S.V., Ter-Akopov A.A., Pis’mennaya E.E., Khramova M.N. (2017). Scenarios for the development of the migration situation in the EAEU in the context of strengthening economic integration. Analiticheskii vestnik=Analytical Bulletin, 19(676), 8–18 (in Russian).
- Rybakovsky L.L. (2003). Demographic security. Zhurnal lichnoi, natsional’noi i kollektivnoi bezopasnosti=Journal of Personal, National and Collective Security, 3, 124–156 (in Russian).
- Rybakovsky O.L., Tayunova O.A. (2019). Demographic potential: From the history of the concept. Narodonaselenie=Population, 2, 17–25 (in Russian).
- Sakaev V.T. (2017). Eurasian Economic Union: The aspects of political demography. Izvestiya Ural’skogo federal’nogo universiteta. Ser. 3: Obshchestvennye nauki=Tempus et Memoria, 12, 2(164), 141–153 (in Russian).
- Sechko N.N., Taranova E.V. (2011). The demographic policy of Belarus and Russia in the context of the improvement of life quality of the population. Sotsiologicheskii al’manakh IS NAN Belarusi=Sociological Almanac of the Institute of Sociology the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, 182–191 (in Russian).
- Topilin A.V. (2018). The impact of migration on demographic growth and the birth rate in the Russian regions. Nauka. Kul’tura. Obshchestvo=Science. Culture. Society, 4, 59–66 (in Russian).
- Vartanova M.L. (2021). National priorities and prospects for the development of the Eurasian Economic Integration. In: Fomin E.V. (Ed.). Ekonomika i pravo: monografiya [Economics in Law: Monograph]. Cheboksary: Sreda (in Russian).
- Vorob’eva O.D., Topilin A.V. (2019). Migration growth of the Russian population: Statistical and real. In: Ryazantsev S.V., Rostovskaya T.K. (Eds.). Natsional’nye demograficheskie prioritety: novye podkhody, tendentsii. Ser. “Demografiya. Sotsiologiya. Ekonomika” [National Demographic Priorities: New Approaches, Trends. Series “Demography. Sociology. Economy”]. Moscow (in Russian).
- Yakovets Yu., Rastvortsev E. (2016). On the system of sustainable development goals and strategies of the Eurasian Economic Union. Ekonomicheskie strategii=Economic Strategies, 7(141), 6–21 (in Russian).
- Zenchenko S.V., Vartanova M.L. (2013). Analysis of trends in international labor migration flows in the context of world global processes. Regional’nye problemy preobrazovaniya ekonomiki=Regional Problems of Economic Transformation, 1(35), 47–58 (in Russian).
- Zlotnikov A.G., Smalyuga A.K. (2017). Belarusian migration in the Eurasian reflection. In: Demograficheskii potentsial stran EAES: VIII Ural’skii demograficheskii forum: Mezhdunarodnaya nauchnaya konferentsiya: sb. Stat. Tom 2 [Demographic Potential of the EAEU Countries: 8th Ural Demographic Forum: International Scientific Conference: Collection of Articles. Volume 2]. Yekaterinburg (in Russian).