Input-output modeling of economic development in the region

Input-output modeling of economic development in the region

Автор: Rumyantsev N.M., Lukin E.V.

Журнал: Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en

Рубрика: Regional economy

Статья в выпуске: 6 т.17, 2024 года.

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In the interests of strategic planning it is necessary to design and develop scientifically substantiated forecasting and analytical tools, including those used to carry out variant calculations of the consequences of management decisions and regional economic policy measures; this determines the relevance of our study, as well as its applied significance. The aim of the research is to model the trajectories of the region's economic development (in the case of the Vologda Region) for the medium term with the help of input-output tables. Tasks: to substantiate the choice of model tools for making forecasts, to develop an input-output model based on calculated regional input-output tables, to identify and substantiate forecast scenarios, as well as to forecast the trajectories of the region's economic development in the medium term as a demonstration of the capabilities of the model toolkit. The article presents the results of scenario forecasting in relation to the trajectories of the economy of the Vologda Region as a model region for the medium term under the influence of various structural policy instruments. We use our own recursive input- output model of the regional economy as a key forecasting tool, which makes up its scientific novelty. Within the framework of three forecast scenarios (inertial, adaptive and transformational), we determine the average annual rate of change in the main indicators of regional development (gross regional product, gross output, investments in fixed assets and net exports) in the medium term, as well as the industry (sectoral) parameters of the Vologda Region's economic structure as of the end of the forecast period. The results obtained in the course of the study are in line with macroeconomic forecasts for development of the national and regional economies in the short and medium term.

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Region, input-output modeling, scenario forecasting

Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/147247138

IDR: 147247138   |   DOI: 10.15838/esc.2024.6.96.6

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