Integration of demand forecasting and cost dissipation prevention in the revenue management system: a new approach to evening out seasonality in the hotel business

Seasonal fluctuations in demand and unstable market conditions create challenges for the hotel business, including inefficient use of resources and reduced financial stability. All this requires the revenue management system to use analytical tools to assess and forecast trends in demand. The aim of this work is to develop a mechanism for minimising resource dissipation based on the praxeological foundations of revenue management and the concept of cost dissipation prevention. In market conditions, demand is an exogenous determinant of revenue potential, resource efficiency, cost optimisation and risk reduction. The study proposes an integrated approach to smoothing seasonal fluctuations through revenue management, including demand forecasting and cost optimisation, using the example of a specific hotel enterprise. The novelty lies in the adaptation of the anti-dissipative approach to the local context, with a focus on eliminating asymmetries and digitising processes. The work contributes to the theory of revenue management by proposing a scalable management model in conditions of seasonality and crises. The SARIMA model was used to forecast demand, demonstrating a deviation of 6.1 percentage points and taking into account temporal (seasonality, trend) and performance factors. An anti-dissipative approach to cost optimisation is justified in order to reduce dissipation and ensure the financial stability of the enterprise. The results of this work confirm the effectiveness of revenue management in smoothing seasonality. The conclusions emphasise the transformation of seasonality into a manageable parameter that contributes to an adaptive growth strategy and increased profitability.