Integration of Technological Forecasting into the Fuel and Energy Balance Management System

The article examines the methodological aspects of developing a long-term forecast fuel and energy balance (FEB). The feasibility of incorporating elements of technology forecasting into the forecast cycle is substantiated, specifically technology foresight, to identify areas for technical and technological solutions that could influence changes in the fuel and energy balance structure. The results of the resulting forecast FEB structure can be used to develop management decisions and corresponding program-targeted plans for the current period, aimed at addressing issues in critical technologies such as rational environmental management, energy, and energy conservation. The author identifies the possibility of developing rules for generating forecast FEBs, which will address a number of issues related to the ambiguous understanding of methodological issues by different participants in this process. As a practical tool for translating strategic guidelines into manageable objectives, it is proposed to consider a program-targeted matrix and assign it the status of a template. This will help ensure alignment between normative and research forecasts, the intersection of which forms the field of technology forecasting. This approach makes it possible to uphold the principle of congruence between the goals of management cycle participants in the context of achieving energy security, economic development, and environmental sustainability through fuel and energy balance management. The methodological basis for studying the structural dynamics of the fuel and energy balance and developing effective management tools is based on the integrated application of a systems approach, retrospective analysis, technology forecasting, including foresight technology, as well as scenario modeling, a program-target approach, and expert assessment methods.