Intensity of structural changes in the Russian economy: current trends

The present article examines the intensity of structural shifts in the Russian economy over the past decade. It provides a brief overview of the hypothesis of negative structural transformation in the Russian economy due to sanctions. The Ryabtsev index was calculated based on the structures of value added, employment, and fixed capital investment. It was found that the intensity of changes in the sectoral structure does not show a stable trend after 2022 and remains within the bounds of low-level differences between the compared structures. The study confirms the greater stability of the employment structure compared to the output structure and the lack of groundwork for positive structural shifts in the investment sector. Based on the dynamics of the Ryabtsev indices, it is concluded that no significant structural shifts occurred in the Russian economy over the past decade, including the 2022–2024 period. At the same time, the sharp increase in the Ryabtsev index for the gross value added (GVA) structure in the 2022 suggests that this period marks the beginning of a structural transformation process. The article demonstrates that the hypothesis of a negative structural shift in the Russian economy stems from ignoring the adverse effects of transformational deindustrialization and the active role of the state in initiating and implementing structural economic reforms.