Use of seasonal pastures in the Ak-Suu district of the Issyk-Kul Region of Kyrgyzstan and theand epidemiological risk for plague

The objective of the study is to assess the epidemiological risk of bacterial plague, a particularly dangerous zoonotic disease, for the population of the AkSuu District of the IssykKul Region based on current data on the population size, area and intensity of pasture use, and development of tourism. To calculate the epidemiological risk index, statistical data on the population size and livestock, areas of seasonal pastures, tourism and hunting zones, and tourist sites obtained from open official sources were used. According to pasture load calculations, the least loaded pastures are remote winter pastures throughout the year and pastures close to villages in the summer. However, in most rural districts, close pastures experience the heaviest load in autumn and spring due to overgrazing of cattle, small cattle, and horses. Such load can lead to rapid degradation and complete loss of these pastures. Half of the traditional springautumn and summer highmountain pastures (jailoo, syrty) are also loaded in the summer. Calculated as the sum of the indices of pasture use, tourism and population, the epidemiological risk index in the AkSuu District in 2024 exceeds the threshold of 50% in 9 sectors out of 14 due to the intensive development of tourism, a high number of domestic animals and pasture overload. The most dangerous territories in the epidemiological sense are the SaryDzhaz River basin, the upper (Maybulak tract) and lower reaches of the Enylchek River (the confluence with the SaryDzhaz River). If the trend of increasing the number of domestic animals and overgrazing of pastures continues, the transfer of plague epizootics that naturally occur in microfoci characteristic of highmountain marmot foci to domestic animals and humans is possible. The method for calculating the epidemiological risk can be used to analyze and forecast the epidemiological situation in natural focal areas of plague.