Effect of uncertainty of baseline incidence rates on estimating radiation risks with ICRP models for Russian populations following single exposure to radiation

Effect of uncertainty of baseline incidence rates on estimating radiation risks with ICRP models for Russian populations following single exposure to radiation was studied. Statistical scatter of baseline rates of solid cancer incidence per 200,000 person-years (population of a small town followed for 5 years) gives relative increase in a mean value of risk by 1.6% and relative increase of standard error in radiation risks estimates by 15.5%; for 500,000 person-years (population of a town followed for 5 years) gives increase in a mean value of risk by 1% and increase of standard error in radiation risks estimates by 6.6%. Statistical scatter of baseline rates of solid cancer incidence per 5,000,000 person-years (population of an oblast, followed 5 years) can be neglected.