Econometric modeling of macroeconomic processes in the Republic of Kazakhstan

To develop a substantiated economic policy we should consider the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators of the development of the national economy, the assessment of potential threats to economic growth, as well as long-term trends that determine patterns and inertial processes of long-term development. In the article the trends of macroeconomic indicators of the Republic of Kazakhstan for a long historical period (1958-2016) have been analyzed on the basis of official statistical data and improved indicators of social and economic development of the country. Using the tools of econometric modelling and time series analysis economic and mathematical models have been made. The models describe GDP dynamics, fixed capital, investments, as well as the dynamics of such structural macroeconomic indicators as the coefficient of retirement of fixed capital, the growth rate of employment, labor productivity, capital productivity, accumulation rates and others. The presence of the cyclic oscillations of different duration has been identified in the dynamics of some indicators. In particular cycles with periods of 6, 9, 20 and 40 years have been revealed in the dynamics of GDP growth rates. The time series model of real investment shows a decreasing trend and cycles with periods close to GDP fluctuations. At the same time, the dynamics of the volume of fixed capital had a steady growing trend, which was formed both under the influence of the dynamics of investments and the rate of retirement of fixed capital. An increasing trend prevailed in the dynamics of the employed population, which was an extensive prerequisite for an increase in the volume of national production. Analysis of indicators of the effectiveness of the use of leading resources (labor and capital) has revealed problems associated to both endogenous and exogenous factors. The level of labor productivity currently does not exceed the values achieved in the Soviet period, which is indicative of the insufficient orientation of the investment policy for labor saving. Calculations and modeling of capital productivity have revealed a pronounced cyclicity of the dynamics of this indicator. Forecasts to 2030, based on obtained models allow us to identify the groups of the most problematic indicators under the inertial scenario of the development of economic processes in the Republic of Kazakhstan. They help determine the priority objects for government impact on economy to stimulate economic growth. The obtained results can be used to substantiate and develop a long-term strategy of the social and economic development of the Republic of Kazakhstan.