Turkmenistan's economic interests are hostage to international political situation

The article is dedicated to Turkmenistan’s attempts to increase its export of energy. It emphasises that the nation’s leadership has done its best not to limit itself to the export of natural gas alone, but try to ramp up the export of electric power as well. For this purpose, Turkmenistan is trying to find new foreign economic partners by holding various events abroad to promote its export capabilities. However, geo-economic projects Turkmenistan participates in are a tool of the geopolitical expansion of major international players. The desire to maximise the benefits generated by the export of energy carries jeopardises to equal and stable relations between Turkmenistan and major international players in the region (China, Iran, Turkey, Russia, the United States, and the EU). For instance, the United States applying the Silk Road Strategy for Central Asia have always supported the political initiatives of the leaders of post-Soviet states designed to leave the Russian sphere of influence. At the same time, Washington strives for maximising the number of US corporations involved in the projects of oil and gas export from the Central Asian countries, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. Turkmenistan’s permanent neutrality status secures it against the consequences of foreign competition for now. This policy was staunchly opposed by the first Turkmen president, S. Niyazov. Having found himself in a difficult socio-political situation, his successor, President G. Berdymukhammedov, is under an increasing pressure by the United States insisting on a drastic change in Turkmenistan’s domestic legislation to allow US oil and gas giants’ direct access to the richest gas reserves on land. In July 1997, the United States announced its agreement with the Turkmenistan - Iran - Turkey gas pipeline project that had lacked its support before. However, the international situation changed soon afterwards, the plans of the US administration followed suit and the Turkmenistan - Iran - Turkey gas pipeline project was put on ice in favour of the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline. At the same time with promoting the European gas export, Turkmenistan also has seized the opportunity to export gas to Iran, with the latter as an end user. However, the hope for getting ready cash quickly has not come true. At the same time, the current scale of Turkmenistan’s cooperation with both Russia and China does not guarantee it the revenues needed for resolving social problems. Thus, the implementation of Turkmenistan’s gas export diversification plans requires a favourable combination of several factors, which existence and nature do not depend on the wishes of the Turkmen leaders.