Ethno-demographic potential of the Volgograd region: current status and perspectives

The article examines the modern demographic potential of the Volgograd region, analyses the natural population dynamics and migration activity; studies the structure of the national regional society, represents possible scenarios of the ethno-demographic development of the region in the coming decades. The study allowed concluding the inevitable decrease of the region’s population. This reduction can be particularly significant if the natural decline will be supplemented by the migration outflow of the population. The most significant demographic losses are expected among the Russian majority of the regional society. Their number for years 2010-2030 can be reduced from 2.3 million to 2.1-2.2 million, and by mid-century, constitute only 1.7-1.9 million people. But the other major ethnic communities, with a high probability will reduce their size as well. This fact will allow the Russians to maintain their high share in the population of the region till the middle of the XXI century. But by this time in the region the number of settlements in which ethnic communities will have to be 15-20 % of the local population will increase significantly. Contemporary regional authorities will need to undertake significant efforts to mitigate demographic problems.