Evolution of Russian state policy for development of the NSR (2018-2022): influence of geopolitical and geoeconomic factors

Russia has published a series of documents from 2018 to 2022 indicating its desire to transform the Northern Sea Route (NSR) into a globally competitive international shipping route due to its awareness of the importance of the NSR for the socio-economic development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. This article examines the evolution of Russian policy through a regulatory analysis combined with an empirical analysis of shipping along the NSR over the period 2018-2022, as well as the impact of Western sanctions. The aim of the article is to examine the viability of Russia’s new infrastructure plan for the NSR, published in August 2022. The analysis of Russia’s policy towards the NSR suggests that Russia needs to review its policy in relation to the imposed Western sanctions. This would entail a new focus on revitalising the shipbuilding industry. The targets set earlier, and then in 2022, for shipping cargo on the NSR should be redefined taking into account current realities. The practical significance of the article is in its use by policymakers engaged in the development of the NSR and researchers of Arctic shipping.