Cluster analysis of the dynamics of the birth rate of fourth and subsequent children in Russian regions

The article presents results of the research in the differentiation of Russian subjects by birth rate of fourth and subsequent children, depending on the region’s socio-economic development level for the period of 2005-2017. The authors conduct cluster analysis based on Ward’s method of time series of 3 groups of indicators, particularly demographic, economic and social, in the regional context. As a result, they identify 6 clusters, describing the situation of Russian subjects, depending on the values of the birth rate of fourth and subsequent children and indicators of socio-economic development of the region for 2005-2017. The study reveals that in the period under review there are two main trends: first, transition of RF subjects from Cluster 1, characterized by sufficiently high values of the birth rate of fourth and subsequent children and low indicators of socio-economic development, to the clusters with a lower value of the coefficient and higher indicators of socio-economic development; second, transition of RF subjects from the clusters with a low birth rate of fourth and subsequent children to the clusters characterized by the increased birth rate against the background of improved socio-economic development. In the current period, it is possible to distinguish the formation of two poles of large families - these are “the poor with many children” regions, in which a high birth rate of fourth and subsequent children is associated with low socio-economic development, and “the rich with many children” regions with high birth rates and a high level of socio-economic development. Between them there are other RF subjects, which are gradually moving away from the pole of “the poor with many children”, but have not approached the pole of “the rich with many children” yet. The novelty of the study lies in the application of the author’s approach to the analysis of relationship between large families and socio-economic development of Russian regions in the temporal dimension.