Cognitive analysis and scenario-simulation modeling of the ecological and economic situation in northern part of the Volga-Akhtuba floodplain

The aim of the present article is cognitive analysis and scenariosimulation modeling of the ecological and economic situation of the northern part of the Volga-Akhtuba floodplain. For the cognitive analysis of the problem the symbolic directed graph of inter-component interactions was built. It was found that the main factors of dehydration of Volga-Akhtuba floodplain are natural and industrial decline in the spring floods, degradation of river beds, socio-economic uncontrolled development of its territory. The authors revealed a large number of stable and unstable cycles of the graph describing the dynamics of the system. An empirical model development scenarios as a tuple of the vectors of the initial state, external action and development trends. Qualitative analysis scenarios showed that the lack of control of the hydrological regime always leads to a decrease in the area of flood inundation as a result of urbanization and the degradation of the relief area. For the quantitative study of the problem dynamic equation of depth floodplain channels was built, to verify that the methods of geo-information and hydrodynamic simulation investigated the sensitivity of the area of flood inundation to change the depth of the channels and flood volume for the entire territory and its individual sections.