Quantitative evaluation of the pandemic impact on population dynamics of the Orenburg region

The predicted population size and its dynamics are one of the fundamental characteristics necessary for an adequate regional policy. Depending on demographic data, considered infrastructure, industrial, agricultural, educational and other projects can be accepted or rejected, both at the regional and municipal levels. The predicted national demographic dynamics can also qualitatively influence the goals adopted by the state and the nature of their implementation. In connection with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, it is especially relevant to develop methods for modeling demographic dynamics that allow taking into account the epidemiological situation and assessing the significance of its impact. Aim. Develop a model of population dynamics in a pandemic. To quantitatively assess the impact of the pandemic on the dynamics of mortality in the Orenburg oblast. Explore the change in average life expectancy during a pandemic. Materials and methods. Regression analysis methods, in particular, the linear regression method, were used to construct numerical forecasts and identify functional parameters. In addition, methods of multidimensional optimization, numerical differentiation and integration, as well as numerical methods for solving hyperbolic optimal control problems are used. The study was carried out under the assumption that the dynamics of mortality in the Orenburg region obeys the classical Gompertz law. To find the initial population distribution, the Adam gradient descent method was used. Results. The evaluation of the integral characteristic indicates the adequacy of the constructed demographic model. The developed model of population dynamics in the conditions of a pandemic makes it possible to take into account and quantify the impact of the pandemic on demographic dynamics. In addition, the presented model provides global forecast quality with an error of no more than 1,5%. Conclusion. The results obtained in the course of the study confirm the deterioration of average life expectancy during the pandemic. In addition, the influence of external factors on the dynamics of mortality in men is stronger and affects a wide age range. The advantage of this model is the use of only basic, publicly available demographic data, which facilitates its application.