«The Lucas critique» and economic theory development: history and the present

The article is devoted to the assessment of the revolution of rational expectations in the context of the development of economic theory. The limitations of modern macroeconomic studies based on the use of standard DSGE models are highlighted. The characteristic of the role played in the replacement of the Keynesian-neoclassical synthesis by the school of new classics, the so-called “Lucas critique” is given. Its epistemological roots (the problem of macroeconomics micro-justification) and essence are singled out. In accordance with the traditional approach, Lucas’ critique is treated as a normative set of rules for constructing macroeconomic models, which should be based on neoclassical principles of individualism, rationality, and equilibrium. The reasons for the wide recognition of Lucas’ criticism and its influence on the further development of economic theory are considered. Attention is focused on the influence of ideology in this process. It is shown that the result of Lucas’s critique was the formation of a macroeconomic consensus in the form of a new neoclassical synthesis. The proposition that the problem of micro-justification of macroeconomics has not been solved within the framework of modern economic theory is substantiated and a conclusion is made about the need to develop a systemic paradigm.