Big-scale investment projects: the problem of group expert evaluation of comparative efficiency

This article discusses approaches to assessing systemic effectiveness of big-scale investment projects that affect the economy of a whole country and have a high degree of uncertainty in their parameters. The instrumental aspect of the assessment problem is considered, and an overview of the existing methods is given, such as the hierarchy analysis method, methods for determining the degree of consistency of estimates, methods for aggregating individual judgments of members of a group of expert evaluators into a collective judgment (including a modification of the method of hierarchy analysis by A.B. Khutoretsky). The analysis revealed some shortcomings of the methods and tools currently used, in particular, there is no evidence that the aggregated group assessment of expert judgments correctly averages individual expert judgments. The article proposes a system of expert evaluation of big-scale investment projects, including the aforementioned methods, which are supplemented with the aim of improving them by the Kemeni median detection algorithms.