Long-term dynamics of the impact of gravitational factors on foreign trade of the Russian Far East
Автор: Izotov D.А.
Журнал: Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Рубрика: Regional economy
Статья в выпуске: 4 т.17, 2024 года.
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The aim of the research is to assess the dynamics of the impact of gravitational factors on foreign trade of the Russian Far East; the factors include physical distance, size of economies participating in trade, and the presence of a land border. The data array generated for the Far East in the “new” territorial boundaries for 2000-2021 indicated the focus of foreign trade of the Russian macroregion on the neighboring and large economies of Northeast Asia with a gradual dominance of China, as well as a decrease in the share of the southern Far East regions in trade turnover with border countries. Based on the technique of solving the “distance puzzle”, estimates of gravity dependence indicate an increase in the positive impact of the size of economies on the foreign trade of the Far East by 9.1% by 2021 compared with 2000 and a decrease in the negative impact of physical distance by 4.3%, respectively. According to the estimates obtained, we reveal the long-term dynamics of the Far East economy “gravitating” toward the foreign rather than domestic market. The positive impact of the presence of a land border on the foreign trade of the Far East regions was determined only in the 2000s. It contributed to an increase in their trade turnover by 209% in 2000 and by 86% in 2009. The leveling of the positive impact of the land border on the foreign trade of the Far East border regions in 2010-2021 was revealed due to the following reasons: mass exports to China from regions that do not have a land border with China; orientation of border regions toward the market of the rest of the Russian regions; decrease in the intermediary role of border regions between China and other Russian regions; small scale, volatility and specificity of trade with Mongolia and the DPRK; negative impact of quarantine measures related to the pandemic. It is assumed that in the context of current restrictions in relation to Russia, an important aspect of the development of the Far East economy should include diversification of trade interactions between the regions of the Far East and China, including through promoting cross-border cooperation.
Trade, gravitational factors, physical distance, gdp, grp, land border, foreign market, region, macroregion, northeast asia, china, Russia, far east
Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/147245871
IDR: 147245871 | DOI: 10.15838/esc.2024.4.94.4
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