Mathematical model for estimating the efficiency of solving the task of selecting operator tecnological operation in manufacture

Nowadays in the process of organization management, the decision-making problem under conditions of uncertainty in some functioning parameters (internal and external ones) exists. One of the main ways to solve the problem is forecasting risks appeared in functioning process, and risk management. Existence of different risk management methods allows to a head of an organization choosing the most appropriate one. The most appropriate method for a large research-and-production organization is a statistic one based on big data array numerical analysis. Such a method proposes more accurate results unaffected by experts’ subjective opinion. The article considers the simulation method for the process of risk management in process of selecting operator and the statistic method of risk minimization based on the usage of mathematical statistics tools. The method allows estimating not only the risk level but also the efficiency of actions intended to risk minimization.