Mathematical models for monitoring and control of electric energy consumption with account of the seasonal factor

The article proposes a method for predicting the daily energy consumption level for every day of a whole year, taking into account the seasonal factor, based on only twelve actual power consumption data by the months of the year. Then a mathematical model is developed for monitoring and controlling the level of electricity consumption on a daily basis, taking into account the seasonal factor. The model is consistent with a common model for the length of daylight (in hours). In addition, on the basis of this model, a method of mon- itoring and diagnostics of electricity consumption is presented, which will al- low users to monitor the level of power consumption and be timely notified of any deviations from the theoretical level. Finally, this method gives rise to the operational principle for a proposed device, a smart energy meter, for detect- ing suspicious deviations from the theoretical level. The device will help timely detect over-consumption (or under-consumption) of electricity in order to take preventive measures. The proposed method consists of the following steps: (1) choice of a function to model the level of electricity consumption (theoretical calculated level), (2) choice of a tubular control neighborhood of the graph of the model function, (3) choice of a criterion on when the smart energy meter should notify the user of an unexpected deviation from the theoretical level in the case of exit from the tubular control neighborhood.