Mathematical modelling of the lake Baikal ecosystem: yesterday, today, tomorrow

The first models of lake Baikal created in 1970th are briefly reviewed. The model of the lake Baikal ecosystem anthropogenic disturbances, developed on the basis of field in situ experiments is presented. Incomes of nontoxic mineral and organic compounds, nutrients (nitrate and phosphate), organic (phenol compounds, oil products) and non-organic (heavy metals) toxicants with tributaries, coasts, atmosphere served as inputs of the model. The results of model experiments demonstrate higher stability of summer plankton community in comparison with under-ice one. The reaction of plankton to toxification and eutrophication was qualitatively similar. Now the lake Baikal ecosystem functions at different from non-perturbed level, though it is still stable.