Mathematical modeling in asteroid hazard problem: estimating the Earth impact probability for potentially hazardous asteroids

The problem of the asteroid hazard is considered in this article. A study of the orbital evolution of the asteroids Apollo, Amur and Aton was fulfilled. On the basis of data on the evolution of their orbits promoted the selection of potentially hazardous asteroids. It found potentially dangerous asteroids applied methods to assess the value of the probability of collision with the Earth. Step selection algorithm in Everhart’s numerical method for evaluating the evolution of asteroids with close encounters is suggested. For the selection of potentially hazardous asteroids applied method of rapid assessment of the minimal distance between the orbits of celestial bodies. To estimate the probability of a collision with Earth asteroids suggested two methods that increase the speed and accuracy of calculations in comparison with the classic Monte Carlo. These results are consistent with the NASA JPL.