Mathematical Modeling for COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics and the Impact of Prevention Strategies: A Case of Ethiopia

At the end of 2019 the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was declared as a major health hazard by the world health organization (WHO) and the only available way of stopping this threat was via non-pharmaceutical approach. Most authors have studied COVID-19 transmission dynamics using mathematical modeling by involving the basic (major) compartments. In this study we have formulated a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 which incorporates almost all possible scenarios at present. We have also analyzed the impact of prevention and control strategies. The model has satisfied all the basic properties that infectious disease model should fulfill; Boundedness, positivity of its solutions, stability analysis, epidemic equilibrium point, basic reproduction number and local stability of the disease free equilibrium. We introduced a self-protection parameter, m to analyze the impact of physical distancing, staying at home, using masks, washing hands and so on. The impact of isolation and quarantine has been analyzed and their effects on the number of Exposed, infected and dead people were clearly discussed. In addition to these, the effects of symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals on the value of basic reproduction number have been examined. The numerical simulations of this study indicate that the government should increase isolation, quarantine and self-protection rates. Additionally to minimize the contact rate between susceptible and asymptotic individuals, self-protection at all cost and everywhere has to be done, so that both symptomatic and importantly asymptomatic individuals stop transmitting the virus.