Mechanisms and Instruments for Ensuring Regional Economic Growth Based on a Forecasting Model’s: A Comparative Analysis

This article examines domestic and international practices for forecasting regional economic growth based on various models (neoclassical, cumulative, “new,” and others) that reflect reasonable assumptions about future regional economic developments, as well as alternative directions and potential timeframes for their implementation. The analysis reveals not only the characteristic features of these models but also their strengths and weaknesses. The study also revealed the possibility of classifying models by a number of criteria: reliability, time ranges (by timeframe), scale, depending on the modeling method used, depending on the set of factors, etc. Using the ETS method (exponential smoothing), a short-term (up to 3 years) economic development forecast for the regions of the Southern Federal District for 2026-2027 was constructed. Based on the forecast, practical recommendations have been developed for the territorial entities of the Russian Federation for its implementation (in the case of positive forecast values) and for improving the situation (in the case of negative forecast values), depending on the specifics of regional development at the current stage.