Method for projecting household electricity consumption in the Republic of Tajikistan

This paper presents analysis based on data of electricity consumption and urban grid conditions in Tajikistani cities in terms of electricity loss; it also invokes consumption breakdown by user groups standardized in Tajikistan for such analysis. The authors propose a method for projecting the electricity consumption and finding the average power at peak loads for households, which is further adjusted for local conditions in the Republic of Tajikistan. To derive the projection equation, the paper proposes a maximum load time coefficient, α(max.load time), which depends on the location and climate/weather conditions of Tajikistan; as such, it may vary depending on the local conditions. The proposed electricity consumption projection method has been tested on a single feeder of the 110/35/6-kV Vostochnaya substation in Dushanbe. The paper shows how the location and the climate/weather conditions of Tajikistani cities affect the grid operations, in particular the 0.4-kV nodes.