Methodological basis of forecasting production and consumption of milk and dairy products of the region

Currently forecasts are widely used methods to develop effective scenarios for milk markets. For these purposes, methods of modeling and extrapolation, expert and combined methods. The aim of the study is to provide a forecast of the development of production and consumption of milk and dairy products in the region. Based on AR model, taking into account the perspective of the dynamic behavior of a number of its previous states, substantiated forecast of production and consumption of milk and milk products until 2020. The first version - based on the dynamics of a retrospective period of production 2005-2014. The second option - on the basis of forecasting the number of cows and productivity. Besides milk consumption forecast also has 2 options (the first version - based on milk consumption forecasts for the period 2005-2014 retrospective; the second option - to the forecasting of per capita milk consumption and population). In the analyzed period is expected to reduce production and consumption of milk in the Kemerovo region, as well as import reduction. However, there is no abrupt changes in the per capita consumption of milk. Prediction helped identify emerging negative trends in milk complex region.