Methodical features of analysis and forecasting target indicators of grain farming in the region

The relevance of the study lies in the fact that it is focused at finding scientific approaches to solving the strategic problem of minimizing the volatility and instability of the grain economy in the region on the example of the Republic of Bashkortostan. In turn, insufficient methodological support for the regulation of such a target indicator of the grain economy as grain crop yield directly hinders the achievement of sustainable development of the regional agrarian economy, which is the basis of social well-being of rural areas. The aim of the study is to assess the sustainability of grain sector development in conditions of uncertainty, as well as to scientifically substantiate certain measures of state regulation, the implementation of which in the strategic perspective is designed to guarantee the effective functioning of grain producers and prevent the decline in the level of regional food security. The article reveals the key trends in the development of grain farming in the Republic of Bashkortostan, which, according to the authors, is the basis for ensuring food security in the region. It is summarized that Bashkortostan has all the necessary prerequisites, reserves and has great potential for the intensive development of grain farming and increasing the level of efficiency in the production of high-quality grain.