Methodological approaches to scenario planning in the mineral resource sector

Amid high volatility of the market for mineral raw materials, development forecast for mining industries and companies becomes a complex issue. The most adequate tool for forecasting the development of industries and companies of the mining complex in these conditions is scenario planning. Scenarios of mineral market development helps select the most likely framework state strategy for mineral resource management and mineral complex and form a long-term plan or complex long-term development program. Scenario planning helps managers adapt to different types of event scenarios in the mineral markets, have certain specific decisions and development alternatives. The purpose for the study is to substantiate the methodological approaches to scenario planning with assessing the possibilities of their use for the formation of integrated scenarios of mineral resource development. The novelty of the research is related to the adaptation of scenario planning methods to the peculiarities of functioning of mining enterprises. The authors define the sequence of scenario planning where each stage focuses on specific features of the commodity sector. Integrated scenarios of the mineral complex development are formed as a dynamically developing large-scale socio-economic system with inertial, evolutionary and innovative scenarios. The scenarios cover the general economic background, economic factors in event development and government regulation, the socio-economic development, the condition of the mineral resources base. The methodical framework of the research is based on theoretial aspects of strategic management with consideration of tools of scenario planning, strategic and comparative analyses. This article gives an overview of main theoretical and methodological approaches to scenario planning, suggests the stages of scenario planning with the emphasis on conditions of production and economic activity of mineral resource companies. The final section develops three scenarios for the mineral complex development. The research results can be used to design documents for strategic development in industries of the mineral complex and in courses of lectures in higher educational institutions, in particular, on strategic management. The prospects for the research are related to the specification of methods and tools for scenario planning to achieve sustainable development in the mineral complex.