Methodology for assessing scenarios of tourism industry development in Kamchatka krai on the basis of digital twin technology

In the rapidly changing conditions of the current technological paradigm new methodological approaches are required to assess effective management using modern digital tools (digital twins) that help to increase the quality and efficiency of economic processes to make timely and balanced management decisions. The purpose of the study is to develop a methodology for assessing scenarios for the development of the tourism industry in Kamchatka Krai on the basis of digital twin technology. Scientific novelty of the proposed methodology is the use of structural and situational dynamics methods with the involvement of data processing statistical methods in AnyLogic environment. The developed model is a modern digital tool that helps to convert a set of diverse data into a timely and balanced management decision based on an understanding of the current state of the industry and the prospects for its development. The theoretical significance lies in the scientific justification of the digital twin concepts and their application in simulation modeling in relation to the tourism industry. The practical significance is that the digital twin allows simulating different scenarios of Kamchatka Krai tourism industry development, thereby reducing the number of routine business processes and the influence of human factor on the quality of service. Using the assessment results, we have identified optimal scenarios for the development of the tourism industry in Kamchatka Krai, its bottlenecks, and determined that the introduction of scenario simulation modeling will regularly calculate the basis the tourist expenses and, consequently, the tourist industry income, and through multipliers - the regional budget income, and other integral indicators to improve the competitiveness of the tourism industry in the region. In contrast to the traditional analytics of processes based on tables and linear dependence, the developed digital twin makes it possible to observe the detailed behavior of the system in time, to keep track of tourist preferences and the capacity of tourist attraction points, to give recommendations on the placement of new objects. The obtained results can be used in the formation of proposals for the development of the tourism industry, and the monitoring of its condition and efficiency.