Insurance risk assessment methods at the enterprises of oil processing

Oil processing enterprises are potentially dangerous objects, for which the risks of fire and explosion are typical. Many installations in oil refineries operate with large quantities of highly flammable materials, under conditions of high pressure and temperature, posing a risk of bursting vessels and causing fires. Catalytic cracking and gas fractionation plants are particularly prone to explosion hazards. Fires spills occur during the filling of auto - and railway tanks with oil and products of its processing. In addition, there are many other hazards, both natural and technogenic, in relation to oil refineries. The purpose of the study is to create a comprehensive methodology for assessing insurance risks in relation to an oil refining enterprise. Tasks include justification, construction and implementation of a formal model for assessing insurance risks in the form of a set of insurance states and a flow of transitions between them. The methods include probabilistic interpretation of insurance activity in the form of Kolmogorov differential equations and a method for estimating the intensity of transitions between states. Numerical estimation of the probabilistic model parameters was performed in relation to the activities of the Ryazan oil refining company. It is shown that the values of the model final probabilities make it possible to determine the priorities of insurance directions.