Methodology of forecasting the gross value added of the manufacturing industry in the region

The manufacturing industry is a dominant factor in the sustainable development of regional economies, it accounts for more than 14% of Russia's GDP. At the same time, there is a negative trend in the index of industrial production of the manufacturing industry, which causes certain concerns among government authorities. There is a need for a detailed study of the reasons for the decline in output in the manufacturing sector, the search for factors that have a significant impact on the dynamics of this industry. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to develop a methodology for forecasting gross value added in the manufacturing industry of the region in order to identify factors that have a significant impact on its growth. This technique will allow the authorities to make informed management decisions in shaping the economic policy of the state. Qualitative and statistical methods of data analysis, correlation and regression analysis were used as research methods. The result of the research was the development of the author's methodology, which includes a method for selecting groups of factors affecting the dynamics of the manufacturing industry in the region, the formation of an economic and mathematical model for forecasting the gross value added of the manufacturing industry. The assessment of the model's quality has shown its suitability for predicting the dynamics of the industry. The proposed author's methodology can be useful to authorities for the formation of economic policy in the field of industrial production. The presented methodology is universal and can be applied by the authorities of different regions, taking into account the assessment of the quality of the economic and mathematical model.