Calculation of supplementary morbidity and mortality through evolutionary modeling of public health risk

The algorithm of population quantitative estimates for additional morbidity and mortality, corresponding to the risk of disorders of the relevant functions of organs and systems of the human body, has been developed based on an evolutionary model. At each stage of the algorithm the necessary data sources, methods of treatment and intermediate results are described in detail, the method takes into account the peculiarities of age distribution of health indicators using Severity Index. Testing of the method is performed on the example of the complex influence of diverse environmental factors on several critical organs and systems. The calculation results show that the additional risk of morbidity and mortality due to diseases of almost all classes and systems increases with age, taking the invalid values in the above working age. In addition, the structure of the additional risks demonstrates overbalance of conditions associated with disorders of blood circulatory system. The results of risk assessment according to the proposed algorithms can serve as a basis for additional studies of environmental factors impacting on health, organization of health prevention and control and monitoring events.