Methods of assessment and forecasting the risks of innovative activity of the enterprises of rocket and space industry

Rocket and space industry is one of the sectors of the economy with research and innovation potential. The rocket and space industry is high-tech, diversified, producing innovative products not only competitive on the external market, but also superior to many Western counterparts. The development of innovative activity of enterprises is an important condition for solving problems of ensuring the country's defense. The innovative activities are carried out in conditions of uncertainty, which leads to the occurrence of risks related to the underfunding of projects, with the unstable economic situation in the country, with the tense geopolitical situation in the world. It raises the question about the choice risk management tools at each stage of the innovation process, allowing reducing losses and increasing the efficiency of innovative activity enterprises of rocket and space industry. The study examined various risk management methods including the evaluation and prediction risks. Evaluation and prediction of risks can be performed on the basis of quantitative methods, and using qualitative methods. The article discusses quantitative methods, which is determined by the numerical value of the probability of occurrence of risk events and their consequences; a quantitative assessment of the risk degree is established and valid in the situation. The proposed quantitative methods to assess and forecast risks in conjunction with each other will allow to anticipate adverse outcome events in the process of innovative activity enterprises of space-rocket industry, as well as to obtain a numerical assessment riskiness of the project, to determine the degree of influence risk factors on its efficiency.