Migratory processes as a factor of the territorial and settlement structure transformation in the Arkhangelsk region (1989—2010)

Migratory processes in the region between two population censuses 1989—2010

Between censuses in 1989 and 2010, the population of the Arkhangelsk region decreased by 370,310 people, or 23.6%. The greatest reduction occurred in the period between 1989—2002: 266,945 people, or 72.1% of the total number of human losses. In 2002—2010, compared to the previous period, the rate of population decline had decreased. That fact allows us to speak about some positive changes in the region.

However, the statement stabilization, in our opinion, is premature. This is evidenced by the census data on the state of migration processes in the Arkhangelsk region (table 1).

Table 1

Population of private households by the length of residents, sex and age groups In the Arkhangelsk region ¹

Total amount         Including living continuously

	of population,	from birth	not from birth
Cen-1989	All population. Men and women 1,569,679          736,189		833,490
Cen-2002	1,302,734	749,046	550,676
Cen-2010	1,199,369	511,868	669,754
Cen-1989	Urban population. 1,151,559	Men and women 527,377	624,182
Cen-2002	975,832	556,364	417,536
Cen-2010	911,490	423,742	471,212
Cen-1989	Rural population. 418,120	Men and women 208,812	209,308
Cen-2002	326,902	192,682	133,140
Cen-2010	287,879	88,126	198,542

In 1989—2010, the number of people continuously living in the place of permanent residence from birth decreased by 30.5%. At the same time, the number of migrants, i.e. people who were not born but are continuously living in the places of permanent residence, in 2002, compared to 1989, decreased by one-third. In 2010 this group increased by 14.3%, compared to 2002.

In 1989 736,189 people or 46.9% of the total population of the Arkhangelsk region lived there permanently and continuously since birth. However 833,490 people (53.1%) said that they had been living in Arkhangelsk region permanently since birth. The 2002 census recorded a slightly different ratio between these two groups of population. There was an increase in the group of people that considered Arkhangelsk region as the place of their permanent residence since birth. The increase was 12,857 people, at the same time the reduction of the number of people who considered the Arkhangelsk region as the place of their permanent residence occurred. The total amount of this group was 282,814 people. If we compare the data of population censuses 2002 and 2010, the difference between groups of the population that lived since birth is 237,178 people or 31.7%. The correlation between groups of residents, who had lived from birth, is 119,078 people. In 2010, it had decreased in comparison to 2002 or 21.6%.

In 1989, the number of migrants exceeded 97,301 (6.2%) the number of persons living in places of permanent residence since birth. In 2002, the situation was opposite: the number of living since birth exceeded the number of migrants to 198,370 people, or 15.2%. We can assume that in the early 1990s radical economic transformations of the Russian society had an impact on migration the mood of the people of the Northern region, who took a “wait and see” position. However, according to the 2010 census, the number of migrants, i.e. persons “born” increased by 157,886 people, or 13.1%, compared to the group of people who lived from birth in places of permanent residence. 17,747 people (1.5%) did not specify the length of residence in the place of permanent residence. Let us compare the measure of the ratio between the number of migrants (not from birth) and persons born and living in the place of permanent residence, in 1989, with the corresponding index of 2010. In 1989 it was 97,301 people or 6.2%, it is less than 60,585 people or 6.9% in 2010.

The urban population in 2010, compared to 1989, was decreased by 20.8% or 240,069 people. 73.2% of all are the people eliminated by natural reasons and migration processes in the period between the 1989 and 2002 censuses and 26.8% in 2002—2010. Let us compare the ratio between the two groups of the urban population, continuously living in the place of permanent residence in 1989 and 2010. In the group of persons “from birth” it fell down to the limit of 19.7%, while in the group of persons “not from birth” down to 24.5%. It is important to note that at the regional level this indicator decreased in the first group of the population by 30.5% and in the second — by 19.6%.

According to the results of the 1989 census, the proportion of the population that lived continuously in the place of permanent residence “from birth” was 45.8%. The population lived in these places “not from birth” was 96,805 more. In 2002 the number of persons living “from birth”, had increased in comparison to 1989, by 138,828 people, or 14.2%. In 2010, the proportion of urban population “from birth”, compared to 2002, fell by 10.5%, whereas in the group of the population “not from birth” it had increased by 8.9%.

Let us consider one more aspect. During the 2002 census of 1,932 people (0.2%) did not specify the length of residence in the place of permanent residence. In 2010 the number of such people increased up to 1.8% of the total population of the Arkhangelsk region.

According to the 1989 census, in the Arkhangelsk region there were 418,120 people belonged to the rural population, the 2010 census registered 287,879 people. The decrease was 130,241 people, or 1% to the level of 1989. The greatest decrease occurred in 1989—2002, when the countryside "lost" 91,218 people because of the natural and migration processes.

In 1989 208,812 people continuously resided in rural areas and considered them as the place of permanent residence since birth, in 2002 — 192,682 people, in 2010 — 88,126 people. It amounted to the level of 1989, 92.3% and 42.2%, respectively. So, this group decreased by 120,686 people: 16,130 people in 1989—2002 or 13.4% and in 2002—2010 rural areas lost 104,556 people.

It is easy to notice that in the conditions of the “shock therapy” rural population “from birth” had chosen to stay in their places of permanent residence. But as soon as the economic situation stabilized, almost every second villager “from birth” had become a migrant, i.e. had left their permanent place of residence.

The second group of the rural population includes the residents who live continuously in the place of permanent residence since birth. In 1989 it consisted of 209,308 people, in 2002 — 133,140 people, in 2010 — 198,542 people. As a percentage of the 1989 level, compared to 2002 accounted for 63.6%, by 2010 it increased by 29.3 points and was close to the level of 1989 — 94.9%. As they say, the market had done its job, the intensity of migration movements in this group of the rural population had returned to normal.

The 1989 census recorded almost equal ration between groups of the rural population, continuously living in the place of permanent residence “since birth” (49.9%) and “not since birth” (50.1%). In 2002 59.0% of the rural population lived continuously since birth, 40.7% — not from birth. The difference between these groups was 18.3%. 2010 census data shows the opposite situation. 69.0% of the rural population lived in permanent place of residence “not since birth” and less than one-third (30.6%) — from birth.

In the group “ younger than the working age” the population in 2010, compared to 1989, declined by 2.1 times, in cities and settlements of city type — by 2 times, in rural areas — by 2.3 times. The ratio between groups, continuously living in the place of permanent residence “since birth” and “not since birth” had changed in the period between the censuses of 1989 and 2010 insignificantly. In the common group of people of sexes, 83.7% of people lived in areas of their permanent residence “from birth”, in 2002 — 89.8%, in 2010 — 87.2%. The significant differences between urban and rural residents of this age were not observed.

In 1989-2010 the working-age population decreased by 24.4%, in cities — by 22.2%, in rural areas — by 32.3%. In 1989 34.9% of population lived continuously in the place of permanent residence “since birth”, in urban areas — 34.8%, in rural areas — 35.2% of the population. In 2002 there was a rise of this indicator up to 19.9%, 20.9% and 16.9%, respectively. In 2010, there was an opposite situation observed. At the regional level it fell down to 38.4%, or 3.5 points more than in 1989. In cities and urban-type settlements this indicator decreased by 10%, but exceeded the 1989 level by 8.3%. In rural areas in 2010, the proportion living “since birth” was 22.6%, or 29.5% less than in 2002 and 12.6% lower than in 1989. In general, according to the 2010 census, 60% of working-age population resided continuously in the place of permanent residence from birth, in the cities — 55%, in rural areas — 76.9%.

The population over working age increased by 9.9% in 2010 compared to 1989. The growth occurred due to the urban population was 22.7%. At the same time the rural population decreased by 14.7%. According to the 1989 census, 28.6% of this group continuously resided in the place of permanent residence since birth, in the cities — 18.5%, in rural areas — almost every second. The 2002 census recorded an increase in the number of residents who had lived since birth in the place of permanent residence, in the common group (34.0%) and in cities (27.7%). As for the rural population, the rate is virtually unchanged (48.7%). In 2010, the situation in rural areas had worsened sharply. Only 14.3% of people continuously resided since birth in the place of permanent residence, which 34.4% higher than in 2002. In 2010 85.2% of the rural population of that age were migrants, in cities — 75.4%.

Migration flows in the Nenets Autonomous district

The population of the Nenets Autonomous district (NAD) was 53,912 people in 1989. By 2002 it had decreased by 24.2%. According to the 2010 census, 41,953 people lived in the NAD. It is 12,319 people or 22.9% less than in 1989. To the level of 2002 the population increased by 1.3%. The changes, occurred in the urban population structure, do not differ from data on the district. It must be noted that, the growth of the population in the urban areas is higher than the overall amount of population growth in the NAD between the censuses of 2002 and 2010 (4.7%). In the rural population structure the trend towards the reduction of the population could be clearly seen: it decreased by 22.8% in 2002 and 38.1% in 2010 by the level of 1989 (table 2).

Table 2

The population of private households in NAD by length of residence, sex and age groups (1989 census, 2002 census and 2010 census.)2

Total

Including continuously living in the place of permanent residence From    Not from birth        birth

Total (%)

Including continuously living in the place of permanent residence Not       ratio From from       (+-) birth birth

Urban and rural population. Men and women

Cen-1989          53,912     22,634    31,141    100.0     42.0     57.8

-15.8

11.6

Cen-2002          40,867     22,437    17,696    100.0     54.9     43.3

ГААО, ф. 1892, оп.27, д.40,лл. 3—5,18—20,33—35,48—50,63—65,78—80; Всероссийская перепись населения

2002 года. Calculations by the author (A.S. Konstantinov)

Cen-2010	41,593	18,340 Urban popu	23,020 lation. Men	100.0 and women	44.1	55.3	-11.3
Cen-1989	34,336	12,132	22,067	100.0	35.3	64.3	-29.0
Cen-2002	25,763	12,528	12,533	100.0	48.6	48.6	0.0
Cen-2010	28,092	12,010    15,865    100.0 Rural population. Men and women			42.8	56.5	-13.7
Cen-1989	19,576	10,502	9,074	100.0	53.6	46.4	7.3
Cen-2002	15,104	9,909	5,163	100.0	65.6	34.2	31.4
Cen-2010	13,501	6,330	7,155	100.0	46.9	53.0	-6.1

According to the 1989 census, the population of the Nenets Autonomous District (NAD) was 31,141 people continuously resided in the place of permanent residence since birth. This meant that 57.8% of residents NAD represented the group of migrants. At the same time 42.0% or 22,634 were people who from birth had resided continuously in the place of permanent residence. The ratio between the first and second groups was 15.8 points in favor of migrants. According to the 2002 census 22,437 people (54.9%) continuously lived in the place of permanent residence since birth. Migrants were 43.3%, and it is 11.6% less than non-migrants. In 2010 the population of the NAD consisted of 55.3% of migrants, non-migrants — 44.1%. As you can see, the same situation was recorded by the 1989 census and its rate was 4.5 points higher than in 2010.

The amount of the urban population in the NAD in proportion to migrants was 64.3% in 1989, to the group “since birth” — 35.3%. In 2002 these rates were equal to 48.6%. According to the results of the 2010 census, the number of migrants was 3,855 people more than the number of people living in urban areas since birth. The difference was 13.7 points, 15.3 points below the 1989 level. In the composition of the rural population in 1989, the number of residents with a status “since birth” was 7.3% more than the number of migrants. In 2002 this rate was 31.4%. The 2010 census recorded the excess of the share of migrants by 6.1% in relation to population continuously lived in the place of permanent residence since birth.

Analysis of the census data in the Nenets Autonomous District in terms of the age groups allows identifying the following trends. In the group of the population under working age , every fourth was an international migrant in 1989. According to the two last censuses the proportion of migrants varied in the range of 14.7—16.8% and was below 1989 level. In the working age population group the difference between groups of migrants and non-migrants was 45.7% in 1989, 3.8% — in 2002 and 30.8% — in 2010. In the population above working age in 1989, two thirds of the population was residents of the places of permanent residence from birth, i.e. they were migrants. In 2010 this rate had risen up to the 73.2%.

In the group of population younger than working age its population had declined throughout the study period: in 2002 to the level of 1989 by 38.1% and in 2010 to 44.4%. In 1989— 2010, the number of people of working age decreased by 20.8%, whereas in the group of older working age increased by 43.7%.

Let us refer to the census results in two main groups: continuously residing in the place of permanent residence “since birth” and “not since birth” (migrants).

In 1989—2002 the population of the NAD continuously lived in the place of permanent residence since birth had decreased (0.9%). The highest decline was observed in the group of the population under working age — 29.8%. The rural population decreased by 5.6%. At the same time, there was a growth of the urban population by 3.3%, of the working age population — 36.3%, above working age — 17.3%. A comparative analysis of census data 2002—2010 allows identifying the following changes. First, it is the trend of declining of the population in all the studied groups, continuously lived in the permanent places of residence since birth. The minimum reduction occurred in the group of population under working age (7.1%) and the highest — among the working age population (35.5%), as well as in the composition of the rural population (34.1%). Secondly, it is the decrease of the population above working age by 13 points to the level of 1989, working age — by 0.8%. In other groups there is a trend of declining of the population, compared to the 1989 level, the minimum was among the urban population (1,0%) and the highest — among rural (39.7%) and younger working-age (36.9%).

The amount of migrants, representing that part of the population of the NAD, which had been ordinarily resident in the place of permanent residence from birth, in the studied time period had changed. According to the 1989 census, 31,141 migrants lived in the district. In 2002, there were 17,696 migrants, or 56.8% of the total to the level of 1989. The 2010 census recorded 23,020 migrants, or 73.9% of the total in 1989. Almost the same situation was observed among workers in the structure of urban and rural population. It is easy to see the trend of growth in the number of migrants in 2002-2010. In the district, urban-type settlements, it was 17.1%, in rural area — 22.5%, working-age migrants — 16.3% and above working age — 48.3%. As for workers under working age, in 2002, there were 12,533 migrants, or 35.1% of the 1989 level and in 2010 — 36.7%.

Migration behavior in municipalities of the Arkhangelsk region

According to the 2010 census, there were 1,199,369 inhabitants of both sexes on the territory of the Arkhangelsk region, 1,181,222 people have indicated the length of residence in the place of permanent residence — 98.5% of the total population. 17,747 people or 1.5% of the people participated in the census did not indicate the duration of stay in the place of permanent residence. In the Nenets Autonomous district (NAD), these rates were 41,593 (99.4%) and 233

people (0.6%) respectively.

Table 3

The population of private households by length of residence, sex and age group in the urban and municipal districts of Arkhangelsk region (the 2010 Census.)3

	Total	Indicated the length of residents in the places of permanent residence	Including people continuously living in the places of permanent residence		Didn’t indicate the length of residents in the places of permanent residence
			Since birth	Not since birth
Rural and urban population. Both sexes
Arkhangelsk region , incl.:	100,0	98.5	42.7	55.8	1.5
Nenets Autonomous District	100.0	99.4	44.1	55.3	0.6
Arkhangelsk region without		98.5	42.6	55.9	1.5
NAD	100.0
		Municipal districts
Arkhangelsk	100.0	97.8	54.9	42.9	2.2
Koryazhma	100.0	99.5	40.8	58.8	0.5
Kotlas	100.0	99.7	42.5	57.2	0.3
Mirniy	100.0	97.8	26.2	71.5	2.2
Naryan-Mar (NAD)	100.0	99.2	44.4	54.8	0.8
Novaya Zemlya	100.0	97.5	2.7	94.8	2.5
Novodvinsk	100.0	97.2	47.1	50.1	2.8
Severodvinsk	100.0	97.5	44.8	52.7	2.5
		Municipal areas
Velsky	100.0	98.6	32.3	66.3	1.4
Verhnetoemsky	100.0	99.3	27.9	71.4	0.7
Vilegodsky	100.0	99.9	27.3	72.6	0.1
Vinogradovsky	100.0	99.8	32.2	67.7	0.2
Kargopolsky	100.0	99.5	31.9	67.6	0.5
Konoshsky	100.0	98.5	33.9	64.6	1.5
Kotlassky	100.0	99.7	29.8	69.9	0.3
Krasnoborsky	100.0	99.7	32.0	67.7	0.3
Lensky	100.0	99.7	36.5	63.2	0.3
Leshukonsky	100.0	100.0	27.2	72.7	0.0
Mezensky	100.0	99.8	31.6	68.2	0.2
Njandomsky	100.0	99.2	40.6	58.6	0.8
Onezhsky	100.0	99.0	39.6	59.4	1.0
Pinezhsky	100.0	99.8	30.8	68.9	0.2
Plesetsky	100.0	99.7	31.8	67.9	0.3

3 Продолжительность проживания населения Архангельской области в месте постоянного жительства. Т.10. Итоги Всероссийской переписи населения 2010 года. Статистический сборник. Архангельск: Территориальный орган Федеральной службы государственной статистики (Архангельскстат), 2013. С. 5—6. Calculations by the author.

Primorsky	100.0	98.4	34.7	63.7	1.6
Ustyansky	100.0	99.8	26.8	73.0	0.2
Kholmogorsky	100.0	99.9	32.3	67.6	0.1
Shenkursky	100.0	99.6	30.2	69.3	0.4
Zapoljarny (NAD)	100.0	99.7	43.7	55.9	0.3

The share of people continuously resided in the place of permanent residence in the Arkhangelsk region: 42.7% (“since birth”) and 55.8% (“not since birth”), in the NAD, it was 44.1% and 55.3% respectively.

In the Arkhangelsk region the composition of the urban population in these ratios looked as: 46.5 % — from birth and 51.5% — “not from birth”. Almost every second resident changed his place of permanent residence. In the NAD 42.8% of the urban population continuously lived in the place of permanent residence, whereas in the group “not from birth”, this rate was 56.5%, 4.8 points higher than the region overall.

Among the population of the eight urban districts only in Arkhangelsk the proportion of residents living there continuously since birth (54.9%) had been exceeded by 12 points the number of persons who lived in it from birth. In other municipalities the ratio was in favor of migrants. In Novodvinsk this advantage resulted in 3%, in Severodvinsk — 7.9%, in Naryan-Mar — 10.4%, in Kotlas — 14.7%, in Koryazhma — 18.0%, but in Mirny — 45.3%, in Novaya Zemlya — 92.1%.

In thirteen of twenty municipal areas had urban population living there. Eleven of them had the proportion of urban population, continuously lived in the place of permanent residence since birth ranged from 43.5% (Onezhsky district) to 29.8% (Ustjansky district). It is important to note that in those municipalities the decrease among the urban residents was higher than in the group of rural population. In Mezensky municipal area the ratio between these two groups was almost equal. The exception was the Lensky municipal district, where rural people who lived there from birth were 9.0% more than the population of the urban areas. In the urban areas of the rural municipal districts the proportion of residents who lived there “since birth” varied in the range of 55.4—59.8% (Onezhsky, Nyandomsky, Konoshsky, Velsky, Shenkursky areas), in the eight areas — from the amount of 61.8% (Zapoljarny, NAD) to 69.8% (Ustjansky district).

Only 30.6% of the rural population of the Arkhangelsk region indicated that they were born and continuously reside in the place of permanent residence. It is 15.9% less than the urban population. In the Nenets Autonomous District, the situation looks somewhat different. Within the District there is 46.9% of the rural population who lived there since birth. It is 4.9% more than those who lived since birth in the urban areas.

In rural municipalities the proportion of those who had lived there since birth in the composition of the urban and rural population of both sexes ranged from a high of 43.7% (Zapoljarny, NAD) to the minimum of 26.8% (Ustjansky district).

If you group all rural municipal districts according to the number of residents who live there and considers them as the place of permanent residence “not since birth”, it will look like this. The first group is the municipalities where the “not since born” population was 69.3—70%. This group includes Ustjansky (73.0%), Leshukonsky (72.7%), Vilegodskiy (72.6%) Verhnetoemsky (71.4%), Kotlas (69.9%) and Shenkursky (69.3%) areas. The second, the most numerous group, is consisted of the twelve municipal districts, where the proportion of residents who lived there “not since birth” ranged from 63.2% (Lensky district) to 68.9% (Pinezhsky district). Besides them, the Mezen (68.2%), Plesetsk (67.9%), Vinogradovsky and Krasnoborsky (67.7%), Kargopolsky and Kholmogory (67.6%), Velsky (66.3%), Konoshsky (64.6%) and Primorsky (63.7%) are included into this group. The third group consists of three municipal districts — Zapoljarny (55.9%), Nyandomsky (58.6%) and Onezhsky (59.4%).

As for the ratio among the rural population in the rural municipalities, continuously living in the place of permanent residence “since birth” and “not since birth”, they are not in favor of the first group. Among the twenty rural areas only in the Zapolyarny it was almost equal. In ten districts, the ratio ranged from 60.1% to 69.8% (Vynogradovsky, Krasnoborsky, Lensky, Mezensky, Nyandomsky, Onezhsky, Pinezhsky, Plesetsky, Primorsky and Kholmogorsky). In nine districts (Velsky, Verhnetoemsky, Vilegodsky, Kargopolsky, Konoshsky, Kotlassky, Leshukonsky, Ustjansky, Shenkursky) the range of fluctuations ranged from 71.4% to 75.0%.

Let us refer to the data analysis of a group of migrant residents in the Arkhangelsk region, who lived at the time of the 2010 census there and considered it as the place of permanent residence since birth (table 4). Proportion of residents who had changed their place of residence in 1991 and earlier was 59.6%, in 1992—2002 — 19.2%, in 2003—2010 — 21.2%. It is easy to notice that almost 60.0% of the census participants changed their place of residence during the years of Soviet power. In percentage terms the number of migrants in the first decade of this century was two percent less than in the second decade. In the Nenets Autonomous district 47.5% of population had changed their place of residence in 1991 and earlier. In the following decade the number of migrants was 23.3%. The number of living “not since birth in 2003—2010 increased up to 29.2%, i.e. by 5.9%.

Table 4

Migration behavior of population of the municipal areas of the Arkhangelsk region, whochanged the place of the permanent residence in 1991—2010 .⁴

Territory         Including people who lives in the places of their permanent residence

Not from birth          Changes the place of permanent residence in 1992—2010         in 1991 and earlier

	City and rural areas	City	Rural areas	City and rural areas	City	Rural areas	City and rural areas	City	Rural areas
Arkhangelsk region incl.:	100.0	100.0	100.0	40.4	38.8	44.1	59.6	61.2	55.9
NAD	100.0	100.0	100.0	52.5	55.5	45.6	47.5	44.5	54.4
				City districts
Arkhangelsk	100.0	100.0	100.0	38.2	38.3	51.1	61.4	61.8	48.9
Korjazhma	100.0	100.0	100.0	33.8	33.8	-	66.1	66.1	-
Kotlas	100.0	100.0	100.0	40.4	40.4	47.5	59.7	59.7	52.5
Mirny	100.0	100.0	100.0	60.9	60.9	-	39.1	39.1	-
Narjan-Mar	100.0	100.0	100.0	55.3	55.3	-	44.7	44.7	-
Novaja Zemlja	100.0	100.0	100.0	94.4	94.1	97.2	5.6	5.9	2.8
Novodvinsk	100.0	100.0	100.0	30.1	30.1	-	69.9	69.9	-
Severodvinsk	100.0	100.0	100.0	30.1	29.8	52.0	70.0	70.2	48.0
			Municipal districts
Velsky	100.0	100.0	100.0	46.1	44.2	47.8	53.9	55.7	52.1
Verhnetoemsky	100.0	100.0	100.0	42.4	-	42.4	57.6	-	57.6
Vilegodsky	100.0	100.0	100.0	41.7	-	41.7	58.3	-	58.3
Vinogradovsky	100.0	100.0	100.0	41.9	44.9	40.4	58.2	55.1	59.7
Kargopolsky	100.0	100.0	100.0	46.8	46.1	47.7	53.1	53.8	52.4
Konoshsky	100.0	100.0	100.0	42.8	42.5	43.0	57.2	57.4	57.1
Kotlassky	100.0	100.0	100.0	45.5	43.7	47.0	54.4	56.3	53.0
Krasnoborsky	100.0	100.0	100.0	42.3	-	42.3	57.7	-	57.7
Lensky	100.0	100.0	100.0	41.2	47.9	37.1	58.8	52.0	62.9
Leshukonsky	100.0	100.0	100.0	41.3	-	41.3	58.7	-	58.7
Mezensky	100.0	100.0	100.0	36.2	38.7	32.5	63.8	61.3	67.5
Njandomsky	100.0	100.0	100.0	43.0	44.3	39.6	57.1	55.6	60.4
Onezhsky	100.0	100.0	100.0	42.1	40.5	45.4	57.8	59.5	54.7
Pinezhsky	100.0	100.0	100.0	42.7	-	42.7	57.3	-	57.3
Plesetsky	100.0	100.0	100.0	43.2	42.2	45.2	56.9	57.7	54.8
Primorsky	100.0	100.0	100.0	50.6	-	50.6	49.4	-	49.4
Ustjansky	100.0	100.0	100.0	45.4	43.0	46.4	54.6	57.0	53.6
Kholmogorsky	100.0	100.0	100.0	38.1	-	38.1	61.9	-	61.9
Shenkursky	100.0	100.0	100.0	44.3	44.8	44.0	55.8	55.3	56.0
Zapoljarny	100.0	100.0	100.0	49.5	56.0	45.6	50.5	44.0	54.4

In urban districts the situation is ambiguous. In the municipality Novaja Zemlja there were only 5.6% of residents indicated that they had changed their place of permanent residence in 1991 and earlier, 30.2% — 1992—2002 and almost every third in 2003—2010. In Mirny among the people living there since birth 39.1% changed their place of residence in 1991 and earlier. Every third changed their place of permanent residence in 2003—2010 and slightly more than 28% in the first decade of this century. In Naryan-Mar there were 44.7% of persons who had changed their place of permanent residence in the Soviet period, 23.6% and 31.7% had done it in 1992—2002 and 2003—2010 respectively. In other urban districts, the number of residents who had changed their place of permanent residence in 1991 and earlier were ranged from 66.1—70.0% (Koryazhma, Severodvinsk, Novodvinsk) to 59.1—61.4% (Kotlas, Arkhangelsk). Every fifth inhabitant of Kotlas and Koryazhma indicated change of their residence in 1992-2002, in other cities, this indicator ranged from 13.5% (Severodvinsk) to 18.4% (Arkhangelsk). In Novodvinsk it was 17.0%. In the following decade the proportion of those were not born at the place of their permanent residence decreased in comparison to the first decade in Novodvinsk (13.1%) and in Koryazhma (14.1%). It remained unchanged in Kotlas, increased slightly within 1.4—3.1% in Arkhangelsk and Severodvinsk.

Rural municipal districts could be divided into two groups. The first group includes seven districts with rural populations (Verhnetoemsky, Vilyegodskiy, Krasnoborsky, Leshukonsky, Pinezhsky, Primorsky and Kholmogorsky). In these areas in 1991 and before 1991 49.4—61,9% of the rural population had changed the place of permanent residence. In 1992—1995, the figure remained within the boundaries of 6.3—8.4%. In 1996-2002 it ranged within 11.0—12.8%, in 2003—2010 20.3—28.7%.

The second group consists of thirteen districts. They are home to both urban and rural population. The first subgroup is seven municipal districts (Kargopolsky, Konoshsky, Kotlassky, Onezhsky, Plesetsky, Ustjansky and Velsky). In 1991 and earlier, the proportion of residents of urban settlements who had changed their residence was more than the decrease among the rural population. This tendency had been continued in 1992—1995 in three districts. In Ustjansky district, this ratio was zero. In 1996—2002 the same tendency occurred in the remaining three districts (Velsky, Konoshsky and Ustjansky). In 2003—2010 the ratio in percentage terms changed in favor of the inhabitants of rural settlements in all the seven municipal districts.

The second subgroup consists of Vynogradovsky, Lensky and Zapoljarny (NAD) areas. There is the difference between rural and urban residents, who changed the place of residence in 1991 and earlier, ranged from 4.6% to 10.9%. In subsequent years, the reverse tendency was observed when the urban population was more actively changing their place of permanent residence than the residents of the rural settlements. The third subgroup consists of Vynogradovsky, Lensky, Mezensky, Nyandomsky, Shenkursky and Zapoljarny (NAD) areas. The ratio between rural and urban residents, who had changed the place of residence in 1991 and earlier, ranged from 0.7% to 10.9% in favor of the rural population. In Vynogradovsky, Lensky and Zapoljarny areas (in 1992— 2010 years) the urban population was more actively changing their place of permanent residence than residents of the rural settlements in Nyandomsky and Mezensky districts (in 1996—2010) and in Shenkursky district (in 1996—2002).

Interregional migration in 1989—2010 5

In the Arkhangelsk region 136,975 people changed the place of permanent residence January 1989 — September 2002. They represented the population in private households aged 15 years and more. 86.6 % of them were the residents of the Russian Federation and 11.2% — the residents of the CIS countries, Baltic States and other countries. 2.2% did not specify the area of their new residence.

In October 2009 — October 2010 31,954 people changed their place of residence, including those who had lived on the territory of the Russian Federation — 29,560 people or 93.6%. 795 people or 2.5% were from the CIS countries, Baltic States and other countries of the world. 1,239 people (3.9%) did not specify the territory of their origin.

Comparative analysis of data statistical of the 2002 and 2010 censuses by territory of residence in Russia due to the Federal districts of the Russian Federation revealed the following tendencies. In the North-West and Far East Federal districts indicators remained unchanged, 85.0—85.2% and 1.1—1.0% respectively. In the Central Federal district there was the minimal growth from 5.1% to 7.0%, in the North Caucasus — 1%. In other Federal districts this indicator had shown the decrease.

If we consider the direction of migration of the population of the Arkhangelsk region in the North-West Federal district, we will observe more intense outflow to the Leningrad region and St. Petersburg. In Vologda region this indicator remained unchanged. It is necessary to note the slight increase of migrants in Murmansk (0.7%) and Pskov (0.5%). In other regions of the North-West Federal district the rate of migration was not changed (Novgorod region) or tended to decrease.

It seems that the published official statistics on population and housing censuses in 2002 and 2010 reflect only the general directions of migration in the Arkhangelsk region. Let us pay attention to the time periods when the migration processes were registered: eleven and a half months during the 2010 census and 13 years and nine months — according to the 2002census. Therefore, the month was assumed as the basic unit for the calculations. The time period of the 2002 census was 165 months and for the 2010 census — 11.5 months.

The monthly average of the entire group of migrants according to the 2010 census was 3.3 times higher than in the 2002 census. By the place of residence in the Russian Federation the difference was 3.6 times. The intensity of migration was relevant for all Federal districts. In the Central district it increased by 5.0 times, in the North-West by 3.6 times and in Far East and North Caucasus by 3.4 times. In other districts this figure was up to the 1.5—2.7 times. Let us pay attention to the increase in the monthly average of people who did not specify territory of residence: 108 people in the 2010 census and 18 in the 2002 census. So, the increase was by 6 times.

Let us analyze the data on the North-West Federal district. According to our calculations, in 2010, compared to the results of the 2002 census, the intensity of the migration of the population of the Arkhangelsk region to the Pskov region had increased by 9.1 times, to St. Petersburg — 8.2 times, to the Leningrad region — 8 times, to the Murmansk and Vologda region 4.1 and 4.5 times respectively. The indicator in the Arkhangelsk region had grown by 3.4 times, in the Novgorod region — 3.3 times. In other territories of the North-West district changes ranged from 1.8 to 2.4 times.

According to the 2002 and 2010 censuses, since January 1989 the Nenets Autonomous district had lost 5,221 people and after October 2009 — 1,401. 4,486 people (85.9%) chose the territory of permanent residence in the Russian Federation and 1,401 people (85.8%) respectively; the CIS, the Baltic States and other countries of the world — 613 people (11.7%) and 125 (8.9 percent). 122 people (2.3%) and 74 people (5.3%) did not specify the area of their new residence.

If we analyze the statistics on the Federal districts in the Russian Federation in January 1989 and at the time of the census 2002 we will get 69.3% of migrants who lived in the Nenets Autonomous district, North-West Federal district. In 2010 this indicator decreased by 1.3 points. The second area is Volga with its result of 4.4% and 5.6%, then the Central Federal district — 4.3% and 4.6%, South Federal district — 4.4% and 2.1%, Siberian and Ural Federal districts — 1.5% in 2002 and 1.1% and 2.1% in 2010. In the Far East Federal district this figure has not changed and it is 0.6%.

In 2002, in the Nenets Autonomous district 3,619 people confirmed the fact that they had changed their permanent residence within the boundaries of the North-West Federal district. Thus 3,118 people (86.2%), who had changed their place of permanent residence, had not left the territory of the Arkhangelsk region. Among them 2,038 people moved to NAD. So, it was 56.3% of all migrants.

According to the 2010 census, the population of the private households who had changed their place of permanent residence after October 2009, in the North-West Federal district was 953 people. Every second migrant had changed his permanent residence within the territory of the Nenets Autonomous district and 86.7% — within the Arkhangelsk region. As for the other regions of the Russian Federation in the Northwest Federal district, almost all of them, except St. Petersburg, experienced the decrease of the migration outflow from the Nenets Autonomous District.

Comparative analysis of migration of the population of private households in Nenets Autonomous district who had changes their residence in January 1989 — September 2002 shows that the was 32 migrants per month, whereas according to the 2010 census there were 122 migrants per month. It means that the intensity of the migration increased by 3.9 times. Within the boundaries of the Russian Federation and the North-West Federal district in particular the increase was by 3.8 times, in the Ural district — 5.5 times, in Volga — 4.9 times, in the South district — 4.6 times. In other districts it was lower.

Our calculations for the North-West Federal district show that the intensity of migration from the Nenets Autonomous district to St. Petersburg increased by 10.1 times, to Pskov region — by 9.6 times, to Arkhangelsk region — by 3.8 times, to Leningrad region — by 3.4 times. In the other areas of the North-West Federal district the changes were within the 1.3—3.2 times.

Interregional migration in 2002 —2010: unequal exchange

Let us refer to the analysis of migration flows of the population of the Arkhangelsk region that took place on its territory and beyond its borders. The census of 2002 and 2010 provide an excellent opportunity to identify the correlation between the two groups of the population of this Northern region. The first group is the residents who were born and permanently resided on the territory of the Arkhangelsk region (“natives”). The second group includes the population that was born on the territories of other parts of the Russian Federation and foreign countries, but at the time of the census they resided on the territory of the Arkhangelsk region (“newcomers”).

According to the 2002 census, in the territory of the Arkhangelsk region lived 1,336,539 people, the 2010 census —1,227,626 people. The population of the region decreased by 108,913 people, or 8.1%.

In 2002, there were 1,336,539 people living on the territory of the Arkhangelsk region, 1 055,083 people (78.9%) had been born in this region. In 2010 the population of the Arkhangelsk region was amounted to 1,227,626 people, including those who were born there — 995,277 people, or 81.1%. The growth of “natives” was the lowest, just 2.2%. However, between the censuses of 2002 and 2010 the population decreased by 108,913 people, including “natives” — by 59,806 people or 54.9%.

As for the population which we have attributed to the group of “newcomers”, this group had arrived from the other areas of birth, but lived on the territory of the Arkhangelsk region. In 2002 this group consisted of 281,456 people. 210,245 people were born in other regions of the Russian Federation (74.7%) and 68,755 people (24.4 per cent) were born abroad. 2,456 people or 0.9% did not indicate the territory of their birth. The 2010 census recorded a population decline among the people born on the territories of other regions of the Russian Federation and living in the Arkhangelsk region during this period. The amount was 44,390 people, or 21.1%. At the same time 4.4 time increase of the number of persons, who lived in the territory of the region, but did not indicate the territory of their birth, was registered.

If we consider the data in terms of Federal districts, the number of people born in the Central and Siberian District and resided on the territory of the Arkhangelsk region, between the censuses of 2002 and 2010 was reduced by a quarter. In the Ural, North Caucasus, Southern and Volga Federal districts this index fluctuated in the range of 17.8% to 20.0%, in the Far East and North-West Districts, it was 11.5% and 6.6% respectively.

Speaking about the subjects of the Russian Federation, we should note that only in five of them had the increased number of residents migrated to the Arkhangelsk region, but born somewhere else. Such territories are: the Jewish Autonomous area, the Chukotka Autonomous district, the Republic of Khakassia, the Nenets Autonomous district and the city of Moscow. However, it should be noted that population growth was minimal.

The study of the migration of the population of private households, whose place of birth was the Arkhangelsk region but they resided on the territory of the other subjects of the Russian Federation in the time of censuses, revealed the following tendencies. In 2002, the Arkhangelsk region was called the place of birth by 1,400,302 people, whereas in 2010 — by 1,298,059 people. Thus, the number of natives in the Arkhangelsk region decreased by 102,243 people, or 7.3%. For comparison, the Arkhangelsk region was left by the amount of people equal to the population of the Vinogradovsky, Krasnoborsky, Leshukonsky, Mezensky and Lensky rural municipal districts.

This tendency was relevant for all Federal districts. At the same time, as the analysis of migration flows of the Northern region shows, the territories most preferred by northerners were the territories of the two Federal districts —the Central and North-West ones. Thus, the share of migrants born in the Arkhangelsk region in the North-West Federal district had increased from 84.9% in 2002 to 86.5% while the total number of migrants was reducing at 65,896 people.

In the Central Federal district the increase was 0.2% (from 6.7% to 6.9%) and the number of migrants declined in the period between censuses at 3,870 people. Despite the decline in the share of the total stock of migrants by 0.3 and 0.2 points, the most preferred places to stay remained on the territory of the Russian Federation, in the Volga and Southern Federal districts.

In the interval between the censuses of 2002 and 2010 the number of migrants born in the Arkhangelsk region and resided on the territory of Moscow and Yaroslavl regions of the Central Federal district, increased by 678 and 807 people respectively. In the North-West Federal district, the largest inflow of migrants-natives from the Arkhangelsk region was to St. Petersburg and to the Nenets Autonomous district — 1,922 and 1,386 people.

Analysis of the data of the 2002 and 2010 censuses reveals a tendency described as the “unequal exchange” of migrants-natives group of the Arkhangelsk region, living on the territory of other subjects of the Russian Federation, and a group of migrants, who were given a birth in other subjects of the Russian Federation, but living on the territory of the Arkhangelsk region.

In 2002 and 2010, the number of natives from the Arkhangelsk region, who lived in the Southern Federal district, was in excess of 2.9 times to the number of migrants born in the territory of other subjects of the Russian Federation, but lived on the territory of the Arkhangelsk region in the time of the census. These ratios were in the Central Federal district, respectively, 1.8 and 2.3 times, Ural — 1.9 and 1.8-fold, Siberian — 1.5 and 1.4 times, North Caucasus — 1.4 and 1.2 times. According to the population census 2002, in the Far East Federal district there were 13,765 people born in the Arkhangelsk region, which is three times more than the number of residents born in these regions of Russia and lived in the Arkhangelsk region. In 2010 this ratio was almost equal: 4,742 people born in the Arkhangelsk region and 4,062 people born in the Far East regions, who lived on the territory of the Arkhangelsk region. As for the Volga and North-West Federal districts, the ratio between the studied groups of migrants was unchanged.

In 2002 41,546 people lived in the Nenets Autonomous District, in 2010 —42,090 people. The population has increased by 544 people, or 1.3%. And the number of NAD residents increased from 29,258 people in 2002 to 29,828 people in 2010, or by 570 people. The share of this group of residents among the total amount of population increased from 70.4% to 70.9%.

Let us refer to the analysis of data on migrants residing on the territory of the NAD, but born in other territories of Russia. In the study period the number of people arrived from the other territories of the Russian Federation and living at the time of the census in the Nenets Autonomous district increase by 551 people, or 1%. The proportion of the population born on the territory of foreign countries decreased from 5.9% to 5.8%. The number of persons lived in the NAD with unidentified territory of their birth, decreased from 642 people (1.5%) in 2002 to 97 people (0.2%) in 2010, or 1.3%.

In the period between the censuses of 2002 and 2010, the greatest inflow of the population to the NAD was observed from the Volga and North-West Federal districts (territories of birth). In other Federal districts (except North Caucasus), it declined in 2010 compared to the 2002.

There are representatives of the 26 subjects of the Russian Federation who live on the territory of the NAD: the Volga and Ural Federal Districts — seven subjects of the RF, from the North-West and North-Caucasian — four subjects, the Far East — three regions, the South Federal District — one subject. Among the subjects of the Russian Federation, except for the Arkhangelsk region, let us to highlight the republics of Bashkortostan, Mari El, Dagestan and St. Petersburg.

The second group of migrants is the migrants born in the territory of the NAD, but living on the territory of other subjects of the Russian Federation. There were 39,339 residents, whose place of birth was Nenets Autonomous District. In 2002 31,685 people lived in the territory of the North-West Federal District, or 80.5% of the total population. At the same time 29,258 people from 31,685, or 92.3%, indicated that their residence is NAD. 7.5% of the natives of this district called the places of the Central Federal District the place of residence. For the Volga Federal District the percentage was 4.5%, for South — 4.9%. In other Federal districts, this indicator ranged from 1.4 to 0.4%.

According to the census of 2010, among the 33,119 of residents born on the territory of the Nenets Autonomous District 32,109 people or 97.0% lived in the North-West Federal district. 92.9% of them lived on the territory of the NAD. Let us pay attention to the decrease in the number of natives of the Nenets Autonomous District, who lived on the territory of the other Federal districts. For example, in the Central Federal District, this rate was 1.5%, the rest — from 0.5% to 0.1%. Overall number of the born on the territory of the NAD between the censuses of 2002 and 2010 and resided on the territories of other subjects of the Russian Federation decreased by 6,220 people, or 15.8%.

The main consequences of the migratory processes and their impact on the territorial settlement structures of the region

In the cities of the Arkhangelsk region and Naryan-Mar, the population decreased by almost a quarter. At the same time in the composition of the urban population, continuously living in the place of permanent residence, there was a tendency of growth of residents who were not natives and came from cities and other settlements, except Arkhangelsk.

In the period between the censuses of 1989 and 2010 the population in towns has decreased by 88,227 people. 44.4% of them became a part of the rural population, as twenty of forty villages lost their status and moved into the category of rural settlements. During this time the number of inhabitants in twenty urban areas decreased from 61,963 to 39,167 people, i.e. almost by one third. The greatest “loss” of the population occurred in the villages Amderma of Nenets Autonomous District (90.9%), Voloshka of Konoshsky district (63.2%), Ust-Shonosha of Velskydistrict (51.3%). At the same time, the population decline was insignificant in the village Ertsevo, Konoshskydistrict— by 8.7%, Uemsky (Primorsky district) and Lukovetsky (Kholmogorsky district) — by 11.8% and 13.2% respectively,

The main cause of population decline in the urban-type settlements and their transfer to the status of rural settlements is the deterioration of living conditions of the residents caused by the negative economic and social consequences of the radical economic transformations in the Russian society.

The migration of the population in the region has had negative impact on the population of the districts’ centers. The overall fell down by 31,354 people, or 12.4% during the study period. If we analyze the data on villages in the districts’ centers, we will see that the rural population decreased from 30,496 people in 1989 to 28,574 people, or 6.3%. Only two regional centers experienced the increase of population. In the village Illino-Podomskoe it increased by 11.2%. In the village Leshukonskoye the number of residents increased by 1,110 people, or 33.7%. In other administrative centers of rural areas the population decline ranged 6.9—20.3%.

Migration processes occurred in the period between the population censuses of 1989 and 2010 had a negative impact on the territorial and settlement structure in rural areas of the Arkhangelsk region. Basing on the investigated materials it is possible to ascertain the tendency of the living space “compression” of the rural areas. We used two indicators to characterize this process: the changes of the number of rural settlements in the studies time period and predictive evaluation of possible changes in the territorial and settlement structure of the rural areas of the region.

In 2010 in rural areas of the Arkhangelsk region there were 3,068 rural settlements that are 503 less (14.1%) than in 1989. In Lensky municipal district every third village was left by its inhabitants, in Kargopol and Krasnoborsk municipalities — every fifth, in Plesetsk — every fourth. In three municipal districts the “loss” was the lowest — 1.5—5.3% of the total number of the rural settlements. In five district municipalities, this index varied in the range of 10.0%, in other — 10% or more.

Let us refer to the analysis of the data using the second indicator — predictive evaluation of possible changes in the territorial and settlement structure in the rural areas of the region (table 5). We are talking primarily about a group of the rural settlements with population of 1—10 people. According to the census of 2010, there were 1,417 settlements, 46.2% of the total.

Table 5

Predictive estimate of the settlements number in the rural areas of the Arkhangelsk region

Rural municipal districts	Total number of the rural settlements 2010 Census	Including the rural settlements with the population of 1-10 people 2010 Census	Proportion of the rural settlements with the population of 1-10 people (%)
Velsky	258	113	43.8
Verhnetoemsky	223	90	40.4
Vilegodsky	143	68	47.6
Vinogradovsky	90	25	27.8
Kargopolsky	169	84	49.7
Konoshsky	126	48	38.1
Kotlassky	216	144	66.7
Krasnoborsky	239	144	60.3
Lensky	88	47	53.4
Leshukonsky	44	10	22.7
Mezensky	41	12	29,3
Njandomsky	116	60	51.7
Onezhsky	83	25	30.1
Pinezhsky	108	21	19.4
Plesetsky	173	88	50.9
Primorsky6	194	78	40.2
Ustjansky	199	71	35.7
Kholmogorsky	358	194	54.2
Shenkursky	200	95	47.5
Total in districts	3,068	1,417	46.2

The transformational change in the territorial and settlement structure of the rural municipalities proceeds by fits and starts. It is more intensive in Leshukonsky, Mezensky, Pinezhsky, Onezhsky and Vynogradovsky district municipalities. 20.0—30.0% of settlements with a number of population of 1-10 people could be found there. At the same time in Kotlas and Krasnoborsk municipal areas, this rate was 66.7% and 60.3% respectively. In Kholmogorsky, Lensky,

Nyandomsky, Plesetsky and Kargopolsky districts almost a half of the rural settlements could be left empty in the coming decades. This list might be longer and include six other rural areas, whose share in the total number of settlements ranges from 35.7—47.6%.

Conclusion

• 1.    The population of the Arkhangelsk region had decreased by 23.6%, the urban population — by 20.8%, rural —by 31.1% between the 1989 and the 2010 censuses. In the Nenets Autonomous District, these rates did not differ from the regional level. The greatest population decline occurred in the interval between the censuses of 1989 and 2002. The period between the year 2002 and 2010, the population decline was observed in the region as a whole and was registered for urban and rural settlements in particular. In the NAD the number of the population increased in the whole district because of the growth of the urban population, whereas in rural areas it continued to decline. In 1989—2010, there had been a decline of the population in under working age and working age groups. At the same time there was an increase of the population above the working age at the cities and settlements of city type mainly.

• 2.    The census recorded the changes in the population structures of the Arkhangelsk region and Nenets Autonomous District. In 1989 the population living in places of permanent residence from birth, exceeded the population “not from birth”. In 2002, this ratio has changed in favor of the population “from birth”. In 2010, the situation was the same as in 1989.

• 3.    Urban districts, except Mirniy and Novaja Zemlja, are characterized by the predominance of individuals, changed the place of residence in 1991 and earlier. In the following two decades, the percentage of residents included into this group had changed slightly in urban districts, with the exception of the Mirniy and Novaja Zemlja. In two of the twenty municipal districts the proportion of residents of urban settlements and rural settlements who had moved before 1992 was higher than in the years 1993—2010.

• 4.    The proportion of migrants, who had changed their permanent residence on the territory of the Arkhangelsk region, was 71.4% in 2002 and 67.8% in 2010 of the total population of the private households who had changed their place of permanent residence in October 2002 and after October 2009 on the territory of residence in the Russian Federation. If we consider the North-Western Federal district, we will get 83.9% as the total number of migrants who had changes their place of permanent residence within the territory of the Arkhangelsk region in October 2002. According to the 2010 census, this rate fell down to 79.6%

• 5.    Our calculations of the migratory movements of the population of private households per month, allows us to make a conclusion according to which the intensity of migratory movements in the time period after October 2009 was considerably higher than the rates recorded by the 2002 census. In general, across all territories, including foreign countries, the difference was 3.3 times, in the Russian Federation and the North-West Federal district — 3.6 times, in the Arkhangelsk region — 3.4 times. The index of the intensity of migratory movements in the Nenets Autonomous District in the time period after October 2009 exceeded the same indicator recorded by the 2002 census significantly. In total, across all territories, including foreign countries, the difference was 3.9 times, in the Russian Federation, the North-West Federal District and the Arkhangelsk region — 3.8 times.

• 6.    Migration in the region was a factor that significantly influenced the changes occurred in the studied period between the population censuses 1989—2010 in the territorial and settlement structure of the rural areas. Projections of its transformation show the presence of the reduction of almost a half of the rural settlements with population of 1—10 residents. Thus, it is possible to speak about further living space compression in the Arkhangelsk region.

The number of migrants who changed their permanent place of residence on the territory of the Nenets Autonomous district remained unchanged and was 85.6% of the total population according to census of 2002 and 2010. This rate was changed according to the intensity of migration within the boundaries of the residence area within the North-West Federal District from 69.3% in 2002 to 68.0% in 2010.