Modelling of Separatism in Europe

Introduction. This article is devoted to the study of separatism in contemporary political science, namely the application of a combination of mathematical models in the study of separatist processes in Europe. Modelling political processes is one of the relatively new and most relevant areas of scientific research today. Methods and materials. In this study, the proposed multi-model approach is based on elements of individual models: the Shapley–Shubik index, the Downs model and the median voter theorem, the Pólya urn model, the principles of normal and power probability distribution, and Granovetter’s rebellion model. The cases of Corsica, the Basque Country, Scotland, and Northern Ireland were selected for analysis. The main theoretical premise of the study is that a multi-model approach minimises the shortcomings of using individual types of single mathematical models and has the potential to systematically illustrate phenomena of social reality. Analysis. This combination of models enables a number of analytical and predictive goals to be achieved in the study of separatism; in particular, it allows conclusions to be drawn about the possible strategy of governments towards “problematic” separatist regions (for example, the classic discussion among separatism researchers regarding decentralisation as a way to solve such problems), to analyse the political course and possible shift in the ideological values of separatist actors in the region, and to examine the characteristics of the involvement of the population of the regions in the processes within the regionalisation/centralisation dichotomy. Results. As a result, a conclusion is formulated about the epistemological significance of such a combination of models: the applied multimodel approach allows, first of all, the descriptive and research function of modelling to be realised. The presented combination of models demonstrates a comprehensive understanding of the processes of separatism in Europe: not only from the perspective of the regions, but also from the perspective of the states; the logic of the behaviour of separatist actors is explained, and an attempt is made to analyse the peculiarities of the relationship between the centre and the regions.